The Pelicans have a shot at the playoffs, but there’s plenty of work ahead
With the NBA All-Star break behind them, the New Orleans Pelicans have a lot of work to do in a short period of time.
New Orleans resumes play Friday on the road against the Portland Trailblazers (ESPN, 9:30 p.m.). That starts a short Western swing that also includes road games Sunday at Golden State (NBA TV, 7:30 p.m.) and Tuesday at the Los Angeles Lakers (TNT), 9 p.m.).
There’s still a shot for Zion Williamson and company to make the playoffs. A win-loss record of 23-32 trails the current No. 8 seed Memphis by 5.5 games with 27 left to go. But, the Pellies are 6-5 since Zion returned from injury, giving them a chance to surge into the brackets if the Grizzlies falter.
Note that three of those five recent losses came against current powers Milwaukee (best in the East), Denver (second-best in the West), and Houston (a .630 win percentage at the break).
In betting market terms, New Orleans is 28-25-2 against the spread, only slightly above break even because of the 10% vigorish on losses (essentially a record of 28 wins, 27.5 losses, two pushes). The Pellies are 6-5 ATS since Williamson’s return.
Worth noting that totals bettors who love points have been cashing with “Overs” in New Orleans games. The Pelicans are 32-23 to the Over this season, 7-4 to the Over since Zion’s return.
VSiN mentioned recently that oddsmakers are now pricing New Orleans at “playoff caliber” regardless of the full-season won-lost record. That could make it tough for backers to consistently cash their tickets. But, the Pelicans might still offer value if they bring peak intensity every night against a schedule that doesn’t. Many non-contenders will be going through the motions. Some playoff qualifiers will be pacing themselves for the postseason. We’ll monitor market dynamics for you the rest of the way.
Football Notes
▪ Former Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta’amu is making a big splash in the XFL. Though not quite Lamar Jackson in terms of overall impact, he leads the league in total yardage with 602 (493 passing, 109 rushing) for the St. Louis Battlehawks.
Ta’amu and St. Louis were wildly underrated by betting markets out of the gate. They covered their first game by 16 points (a 15-9 win at Dallas as a 9-point underdog). They covered their second game by 11.5 points (an exciting 28-24 road loss at league power Houston this past Sunday as 7.5-point underdogs).
At Houston, Ta’Amu was 30-37-284 passing, while adding a rushing touchdown. Though, he did throw two interceptions…a problem for him at Ole Miss when facing quality opposition.
Ta’amu returns to the field Sunday for St. Louis’s sold-out home opener vs. the New York Guardians (ESPN, 2 p.m.). The XFL is anxious to make stars. You can be sure the league will take this opportunity to showcase the former Rebels star in this high-profile TV spot.
Are you betting the XFL? You regulars know VSiN likes to focus on key indicator stats when evaluating teams. Here’s a quick recap of last week’s action (you can find game stats through the season at xfl.com).
▪ DC (-7) beat New York 27-0, winning yardage 384-137, yards-per-play 5.9 to 2.9, third down conversions 50% to 9%, and turnovers 3-1.
▪ Seattle (+1) beat Tampa Bay 17-9, winning turnovers 3-1. Visiting Tampa Bay actually won stats, with a 289-199 edge in total yardage, a 4.1 to 3.9 advantage in yards-per-play, and a 53% to 20% rout in third down percentage. Note that two of the game’s three touchdowns were interception returns.
▪ Dallas (-6.5) won at Los Angeles 25-18, winning yardage 444-251 and yards-per-play 6.7 to 4.6. Scoreboard was closer than those stats would suggest because of a 3-2 loss in turnovers, and a 54% to 43% loss in third down conversions. Landry Jones made his debut at quarterback for Dallas, which was the first XFL offense to crack 6.0 yards-per-play and 400 total yards.
▪ Houston (-7.5) beat St. Louis 28-24 thanks to a 2-0 edge in turnovers (Ta’amu’s two interceptions). St. Louis won stats big, with a 390-238 edge in yardage and four touchdown drives of 60 yards or more. Houston cashed in cheap TD drives of one and six yards to score a misleading win.