How bettors should approach the Pelicans after the return of Zion Williamson
It’s rare that the biggest betting story in the whole world of sports is taking place on the Gulf Coast. But, that’s certainly the case this week with the return of rookie Zion Williamson to the lineup of the New Orleans Pelicans. (Next week, there’s a big football game you’re probably aware of.)
ESPN adjusted its broadcast lineup to provide national coverage of Wednesday night’s home game against San Antonio. After hosting Denver Friday, the Pellies return to national television Sunday vs. Boston (ESPN, 5 p.m.). They’ll also be on national TV Super Bowl Sunday in an early afternoon at Houston (ABC, 1 p.m.)
How should bettors deal with Zion’s return? How many points will he be worth in market Power Ratings? One way to make an immediate ballpark estimate is to compare new lines “with Zion” to recent meetings with him against the same teams. Remember that the market usually allots three points for home court advantage.
The Pelicans hadn’t played the Spurs before Wednesday, so we can’t use that example. In others…
▪ Friday vs. Denver: New Orleans was +9 at Denver back on Christmas Day. That’s about the same as +3 at home.
▪ Sunday vs. Boston: New Orleans was recently +11.5 at Boston on January 11. That’s about the same as +5.5 at home.
▪ Tuesday at Cleveland: first meeting.
▪ Friday Jan. 31 vs. Memphis: New Orleans was just +3 at Memphis on Martin Luther King Day. That’s the same as pick-em at home.
▪ Super Bowl Sunday at Houston: New Orleans was -5 vs. Houston on Dec. 29, but that’s not a good match because Rockets star James Harden missed the game. The Pelicans were +7.5 vs. Houston way back on Nov. 11, and +12 at Houston on Oct. 26.
Hopefully Zion will stay healthy through those coming betting attractions. Market followers can compare new numbers to past pointspreads to get a read on his perceived value.
Updating a story we discussed last week…New Orleans has been on a tear leading up to Zion’s return. After this past Monday’s easy 126-116 road win at Memphis as three-point underdogs, the Pelicans stood 10-4 straight up their last 14 games (with two of those losses coming to Western Conference co-favorites the Lakers and the Clippers, and the other two coming against Utah and Boston). They’re 12-1-1 ATS their last 14 games, continually catching betting markets napping. (Big Easy/Easy Money!)
Monday’s victory was keyed by an inside-out attack that featured a 21-9 edge on made three-pointers, a 21-15 edge on made free throws, and 52.5% shooting on two-point attempts..
Other Notes
▪ That big football game you’re probably aware of coming up on the first Sunday of February matches the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs and the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers. First numbers up globally ranged from pick-em to Kansas City -1.5. First money in virtually cemented the line at Chiefs -1. Sharps bet K.C. hard at pick-em. But, San Francisco support showed strong at +1.5 in the limited time that line was available.
▪ This past Sunday, Kansas City (-7) toppled Tennessee 35-24, winning total yardage 404-295, yards-per-play 6.3 to 5.1, third down conversions 60% to 30%, and rushing yards 112-85. The latter was important because star running back Derrick Henry of the Titans was unable to impose his will on proceedings. Kansas City moved the ball easily after falling behind early, scoring on touchdown drives of 74, 63, 86, 73, and 88 yards.
San Francisco (-8) beat Green Bay 37-20, winning turnovers 3-0, yards-per-play 6.9 to 6.2, third down conversions 40% to 33%, and rushing yards by an astonishing 285-62. Aaron Rodgers helped the Packers accumulate a lot of meaningless, garbage-time stats after they fell behind by scores of 27-0 and 34-7.
VSiN will provide continuing news and notes on Super Bowl LIV from a betting perspective between now and kickoff. We return Saturday to talk about a very exciting SEC/Big 12 college basketball conference challenge that will include Mississippi State at Oklahoma, Baylor at Florida, Kentucky at Texas Tech, and Tennessee at Kansas. For bettors, it will feel like March Madness six weeks early! Will the SEC be ready to compete?