Is it worth betting on Lane Kiffin’s chances at Ole Miss? You should consider his past.

Will new head coach Lane Kiffin make Ole Miss a good team to bet on next season?

That will depend as much on market expectations as it will on whether or not Kiffin can improve the Rebels on both sides of the ball and make them more competitive in the talent-rich SEC West.

Let’s say Kiffin improves Ole Miss by a field goal in Power Ratings. If the market was expecting a 5-6 point improvement, then the Rebels will fall short of pointspreads and lose bettors money. The team would be better, but risking money on them would be ill-advised.

But, if the market expects little, and Kiffin delivers a lot, then Ole Miss will be a team to bet with confidence. Bettors should always remember to evaluate the market in addition to just studying players and teams.

Given Kiffin’s checkered past, you should start skeptical, but open-minded. He was exposed as in over his head as an NFL coach with the Oakland Raiders back in 2007-08. Then, he couldn’t satisfy alumni and boosters at Tennessee (one season) or USC (three-plus seasons).

Though, after a few years as an assistant, his return to lead the Florida Atlantic program from 2017-19 was successful. FAU was 22-17 against the spread in his three seasons, including 9-4 ATS this year. Of course, Conference USA isn’t the SEC.

Maybe Kiffin is now ready to quash criticism and thrive at a major conference program. Be ready for that possibility. Just remember to incorporate market analysis into your betting strategy.

Ole Miss didn’t qualify for a bowl this season with a 4-8 straight up record. But, both Mississippi State and Southern Miss earned postseason bids.

▪ Mississippi State will play Louisville December 30 at the Music City Bowl in Nashville. The Bulldogs have stood pat as favorites of -3.5 points over the Cardinals since lines hit the board at sports books. Sharps weren’t interested in either team at the opening price. The line could change through the month if news develops regarding suspensions or injuries.

▪ Southern Miss won’t play until next year! The Golden Eagles wait all the way until January 4 to tackle Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth. An opening line of Tulane -7.5 was quickly bet down. Within 24 hours, stores globally were showing either -7 or -6.5. Telling that Southern Miss received sharp support at the key number or above.

Fans of SEC teams have a busy few weeks ahead of them. Here’s a quick review of early betting in all bowl (or playoff) games involving the SEC.

▪ Texas A&M opened at -4 over Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl (Dec. 27, Houston). The Aggies were bet up to -6 in short order. Sharps often hit SEC openers because of the league’s stellar bowl history. A&M is respected by smart money because it was battle tested by a brutal schedule this past season.

▪ LSU opened at -11.5 over Oklahoma in the Chick Fil-A Bowl that’s also the first of two national championship semifinals (Dec. 28, Atlanta). The Tigers were bet all the way up to -13 and -13.5 soon after. Oddsmakers continue to underprice the Tigers in big games! In the other semifinal later that day, Clemson was bet from -1 to -2 over Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ.

▪ Florida opened at -14 over Virginia in the Orange Bowl (Dec. 30, Miami). Here, sharps faded the SEC with early money on the underdog….causing the number to drop a point to -13.

▪ Kentucky opened at +3 vs. Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl (Dec. 31, Charlotte). That pointspread stood pat, lost in the shuffle of more enticing matchups.

▪ Alabama opened at -7 over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1, Orlando). This will be one of the heaviest bet games of the entire bowl slate. Both teams have national constituencies that will love their teams at this price. Sharps seem hesitant to lay a touchdown with ‘Bama’s backup quarterback Mac Jones.

▪ Auburn opened at -8 over Minnesota in the Outback Bowl (Jan. 1, Tampa). Stores may hop between -8 and -7.5 through the month pending personnel news. The Tigers would be a popular take at -7. Minnesota has been attracting sharp dog lovers at the full eight.