How many games will Ole Miss win in ’18? Here are projections for all 12 games.
Momentum is hard to find when you’re still feeling the pain of NCAA sanctions, but Matt Luke’s Ole Miss squad managed to build some energy by beating Mississippi State in the 2017 finale to win three of four games to close out the season.
The Rebels reached bowl eligibility at 6-6 in Luke’s first year and seem a good shot to again hit that mark in 2018, but the team will again not be eligible for the postseason.
Las Vegas believes the Rebels will again hit that mark with an over-under of exactly 6 wins entering the 2018 campaign. Arkansas also has a 6-win over/under with only Kentucky (5.5), Tennessee (5.5) and Vanderbilt (4) projected to have fewer wins in the SEC this season.
The Rebels will score plenty of points this year after senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu took over the offense midway through last year and put up great numbers down the stretch. He finished with a 66.5 percent completion percentage, 1,682 yards, 11 touchdowns and four interceptions in eight games (five starts).
His receiving corps will be among the nation’s best with A.J. Brown leading the way. He caught 75 passes for 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns. Also returning are DaMarkus Lodge (41 catches for 698 yards, 7 TD) and D.K. Metcalf (39 catches for 646 yards, 7 TD).
It will all come down to the defense, which gave up 34.6 points and 459.5 yards a contest last season.
Here’s my win/loss projections for all 12 games this season and the level of confidence I have for each prediction.
Sept. 1 — Texas Tech (at Houston) — The scoreboard will be active for the season opener. Both Texas Tech and Ole Miss should score points in bunches, but I expect the Rebels to be a little better on the defensive side of the ball.
Projection — Win.
Confidence level — It could flip the other way.
Sept. 8 — Southern Illinois — The Salukis are an FCS team that finished 4-7 in 2017. The Rebels should get a nice break before the Crimson Tide come to town.
Projection — Win.
Confidence level — It’s a lock.
Sept. 5 — Alabama — Now that Alabama seems to have its own gunslinger at quarterback, Ole Miss has no chance to stay with the defending national champions.
Projection – Loss.
Confidence level – It’s a lock.
Sept. 22 — Kent State — The Golden Flashes were one of the worst FBS teams in the nation last year with a final mark of 2-10.
Projection – Win.
Confidence level – It’s a lock.
Sept. 29 — at LSU — This is always a big contest and the outcome will say a great deal about both teams. Not many people are buying into the Tigers ahead of the 2018 season, but they’ll have the home field advantage.
Projection – Loss.
Confidence level – Coin’s toss.
Oct. 6 — Louisiana-Monroe — The Warhawks are expected to take a step forward after going 4-8 last year, but I don’t expect the Warkhawks to slow down Ta’amu and crew.
Projection – Win.
Confidence level – It’s a lock.
Oct. 13 — at Arkansas — I was underwhelmed by the hiring of Chad Morris at Arkansas. You can also point out that I didn’t exactly hop on the love train for Luke getting the full-time gig at Ole Miss. I give the Rebs an edge in a barn burner.
Projection – Win.
Confidence level – Coin’s toss.
Oct. 20 — Auburn — I don’t see the Rebels hanging with a team the quality of Auburn as they begin a difficult stretch to close out the season.
Projection – Loss.
Confidence level – It’s a lock.
Nov. 3 — South Carolina — The bye week won’t provide much relief as South Carolina’s stiff defense comes to town.
Projection - Loss.
Confidence level – It’s a lock.
Nov. 10 — at Texas A&M — After losing back-to-back home games, the Rebels hit the road in need of a rebound. I don’t think Jimbo Fisher will allow that to happen.
Projection – Loss.
Confidence level – Coin’s toss.
Nov. 17 — at Vanderbilt — The Ole Miss-Vandy game is always among the weirdest of the season in the SEC, but I see the Rebels finding new life against the inconsistent Commodores.
Projection – Win.
Confidence level – It could flip the other way.
Nov. 22 — Mississippi State — Newly-hired head coaches have had a lot of luck in the Egg Bowl over the last decade or so. Houston Nutt won for Ole Miss in 2008 before Dan Mullen returned the favor in 2009. Hugh Freeze stole the Golden Egg during his initial season in 2012. Last year, Luke spoiled Mullen’s final game as MSU head coach. I’m betting on Joe Moorhead and the Bulldogs.
Projection – Loss.
Confidence level – It could flip the other way.
FINAL PROJECTION FOR OLE MISS: I see the Rebels finishing 6-6 overall and 2-6 in SEC play with some room to improve.
This story was originally published August 22, 2018 at 1:24 PM.