Where Mississippi State and the rest of the SEC stand with the NCAA Tournament
After a loss earlier this week to South Carolina, Mississippi State may be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday for the 2020 NCAA college basketball tournament.
That 73-61 defeat as just a two-point underdog dropped the Bulldogs further off the bubble in many bracketology estimates (including the most widely-followed projections by Joe Lunardi of ESPN). All that’s left in the regular season is Saturday’s home game vs. arch rival Ole Miss (SEC Network, 5:30 p.m.). A win there wouldn’t provide much of a launch, as the Rebels sit near the bottom of the SEC standings.
Mississippi State (19-11, 10-7) enters the regular season finale having dropped six of its last nine games against the point spread. Spreads represent reasonable expectations from a “wisdom of the crowd” perspective. Tough to impress decision-makers if you even can’t play par golf when it matters most.
Ole Miss (15-15, 6-11) is going for a season sweep after winning Round One by a stunning 83-58 count as a one-point home underdog back on February 11. The Rebels are coming off a 75-69 win Wednesday night vs. Mizzouri as a 4.5-point favorite.
Mississippi State’s late decline is consistent with the fade of the Southeastern Conference overall. What once seemed like a league full of dangerous spoilers may now get only four teams into the Dance. Here’s the current outlook…
▪ Kentucky: the Wildcats will at least be seeded for a Sweet 16 appearance. But, a shocking 81-73 home loss this past Tuesday to Tennessee as an eight-point favorite made an Elite Eight seed less likely. Kentucky had been one of the hottest teams in the nation prior, covering seven of eight. Still a chance to make headlines in the postseason. Kentucky is currently 10/1 to cut down the national nets at Caesars Casino and Sportsbook in Las Vegas.
(Note: a pre-conference home loss to Evansville is killing Kentucky and the SEC in some computer assessments. Evansville would subsequently go 0-18 in the Missouri Valley Conference. That makes Kentucky look bad…and then makes a conference dominated recently by Kentucky look bad too.)
▪ Auburn: The Tigers were once thought to be Sweet 16 material. They’re now trending toward earning a No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the Dance after a poor 78-75 home loss to Texas A&M Wednesday night as 12.5-point favorites. Auburn is 2-6 ATS its last eight, and a worse 1-6 ATS its last seven on the road. Teams must play well away from home in the postseason. Auburn is 35/1 at Caesars, which looks overly optimistic.
▪ Florida: The Gators can play with anybody, but inconsistency has them probably looking at a No. 8 or No. 9 seed unless they knock off Kentucky Saturday in Gainesville (CBS, noon) or go deep in the conference tournament. They closed strong Wednesday in a 68-54 win at Georgia as two-point favorites. That ran the Gators’ recent mark to 5-2 ATS the last seven. Florida is 200/1 at Caesars, which could appeal to those searching for Cinderella. (Mississippi State returns a comparable 175/1 but is in real danger of missing the tourney.)
▪ LSU: Oddly, the Tigers are getting more national respect than Florida…despite falling to 3-7 ATS their last 10 games after a 99-90 loss at Arkansas Wednesday as four-point underdogs. LSU is 75/1 at Caesars.
South Carolina (500/1) is getting bubble consideration. The Gamecocks need to take care of business Saturday at lowly Vanderbilt (SEC Network, 11:30 a.m.) then do some damage in the SEC tournament.
Other basketball notes
▪ In Conference USA action, next-to-last Southern Miss (9-21, 5-12) ends its regular season Saturday at last-place Middle Tennessee (5:30 p.m.). That will end the Golden Eagles’ campaign as they finish 13 out of 14 teams in the conference. Only 12 squads advance to the C-USA tournament with North Texas (20-11, 14-4) holding the top seed as regular season champs.
▪ In the NBA, the New Orleans Pelicans “covered twice” in an overtime loss at Dallas Wednesday night. They fell 127-123 as a six-point underdog, staying within the number even with extra time. The Pellies host Miami Friday night in a game that will be nationally televised (ESPN, 7 p.m.) before visiting Minnesota Sunday afternoon.
This story was originally published March 5, 2020 at 11:46 AM.