Here’s a close look at Mississippi State basketball as it balances on the NCAA bubble
Mississippi State’s 80-73 victory over Alabama as five-point favorites this past Tuesday night came at just the right time. The Bulldogs are sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble after a string of disappointing performances (having dropped five of their prior six games against the pointspread). They must close the season well Saturday at Missouri (SEC Network, 2:30 p.m.), and next week at South Carolina and versus Ole Miss.
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi will likely have State in the “first four out” or “next four out” entering the weekend based on recent trends.
Sharps (professional bettors) have noticed that Mississippi State’s defense has struggled down the stretch. The team had played eight straight Overs before going Under 157.5 vs. Bama. Whenever a ledger is heavy with “loss and Over” performances vs. market expectations, it’s because a defense is struggling.
This is clear in the market-respected statistical data posted free of charge at Ken Pomeroy’s website kenpom.com. At midweek, Mississippi State ranked a disappointing No. 130 nationally in “adjusted defensive efficiency.” That’s points allowed adjusted for pace and schedule strength. Not “dance caliber,” by any means. The offense must shoot great each game just for the team to win, let alone cover as favorites.
Most championship threats play excellent defense. Among this season’s national powers, Gonzaga is considered vulnerable in the Dance with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of No. 33, Dayton at No. 51. What’s Mississippi State going to do in the postseason if it can’t get stops?
If you’ve been following the Bulldogs closely, you’ve probably noticed that opponents have been putting up some big scoring totals. Starting with Alabama and working backward, opponents have scored 76, 87, 76, 77, 83, 70, 80, 73, and 71 points. This despite the fact that State plays at a slow pace (No. 260 out of 353 measured teams at kenpom.com).
Handicappers and bettors should pay close attention to the Bulldogs’ defensive effort moving forward. Only back them if you see more intensity. If not, look at Overs against posted totals.
On the futures board, Mississippi State is 300/1 to win the national championship, 50/1 to win the NIT at Circa Sports in Las Vegas. (Soft defense doesn’t win championships!)
Other basketball betting notes
▪ Ole Miss lost Tuesday 67-58 at Auburn, just missing a pointspread of +8.5. It was the Rebels third-straight non-cover after running off seven ticket cashers in a row. Oddsmakers look to have caught up with what had been an improved level of play.
The straight up loss dropped Ole Miss to 4-11 in league action, likely keeping it off the NIT radar. Only a shocking run to an SEC tournament title could put the Rebels in the Big Dance. They’ll be favored to pick up a win Saturday at home against Vanderbilt (SEC Network, noon)…and will also be home favorites over Missouri next week before finishing the regular season as road underdogs at Miss. State.
▪ Quietly profitable Southern Miss (7-3 ATS its last 10 games) just enjoyed a week off before visiting UTEP at 3 p.m. on Sunday. The Golden Eagles are 5-11 in league play, but have only been favored twice. Sometimes ugly underdogs can be smart bets. They ranked No. 250 nationally in Pomeroy’s computer assessment at midweek but haven’t yet thrown in the towel.
▪ In the NBA, the New Orleans Pelicans will get a quick chance at revenge against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday (ESPN, 7 p.m.). Zion Williamson and company lost Tuesday night at Staples Center 118-109 as 7.5-point underdogs. A fourth-quarter fade was once again a problem vs. an elite opponent. The Pellies dropped the final stanza 30-23 to miss the market. Zion scored 29 points in 33 minutes in a losing effort.
Before that marquee matchup, New Orleans must keep its eye on the ball Friday night at home against Cleveland. The Cavs have been a better bet since re-assigning overmatched head coach John Beilein within the organization.
March arrives this weekend, which means basketball madness is soon to begin! VSiN looks forward to covering all the excitement for you from a market perspective. See you again Thursday.