Where Mississippi State stands in NCAA tourney picture after win over S. Carolina
The aftershocks of Ole Miss’s stunning 83-58 rout of Mississippi State back on Feb. 11 are still being felt. State is now firmly on the bubble of NCAA Tournament consideration (among the “first four out” according to Joe Lunardi of ESPN earlier this week) after what had been an impressive run.
This past Wednesday night’s 79-76 win over South Carolina as 5.5-point favorites might help a little. That brought Miss. State to 17-9 overall, 8-5 in the SEC. But, for bettors, the non-cover was State’s fourth failure in its last five games. A seven-game cover streak early in league play is now way back in the rearview mirror.
Mississippi State returns to the floor Saturday at Texas A&M (SEC Network, 2:30 p.m.). The Aggies (+11) shocked Alabama 74-68 Wednesday night, proving again that anything can happen in the SEC.
A relatively friendly remaining schedule (vs. Alabama, at Missouri, at South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss) will give the Bulldogs a chance to improve their NCAA tournament chances. Little margin for error, though.
A hundred miles north, Ole Miss has virtually no chance at the Dance given their 4-9 record in SEC action. It would take a 5-0 finish to reach .500 in the league. Ole Miss hosts Alabama Saturday (SEC Network, 7:30 p.m.) before finishing at Auburn, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Missouri and at Miss. State.
Ole Miss ended a seven-game point spread-cover streak with a 71-68 loss at Missouri this past Tuesday night as one-point underdogs. Betting markets may finally have caught up to the Rebels’ recent improved level of play.
College basketball Notes
▪ Florida at No. 10 Kentucky (ESPN, 5 p.m.) is Saturday’s game of the day in the SEC…part of a full day of national blockbusters. Kentucky’s recent surge has them climbing the futures board amidst an improved bracketology outlook. The Wildcats (21-5) will be clear home favorites here…but they’ve failed to cover four of their last five in that role. Florida (17-9) has covered three straight, bouncing back from a five-game pointspread skid.
▪ No. 3 Kansas at No. 1 Baylor (ESPN, 11 a.m.) could be a Final Four or national championship preview. Both have earned strong consideration for top seeds in the Big Dance. Kansas (23-3) will be seeking revenge after getting shocked by Baylor 67-55 in Lawrence back on January 11. Baylor (24-1) continues to befuddle oddsmakers and sharps with an 11-3 ATS record its last 14 games. Kansas is 8-3 ATS since the loss to the Bears.
▪ No. 14 Oregon at No. 24 Arizona (ESPN, 8 p.m.) matches two dangerous Pac 12 floaters. Both have issues that should derail a run to the national title. But, both are capable of playing with anyone over 40 minutes. Oregon (20-6) won the first meeting in overtime in Eugene, failing to cover as three-point favorites in a 74-73 thriller. Arizona (18-7) will look for revenge in front of a rabid crowd.
▪ No. 2 Gonzaga at No. 23 BYU (ESPN2, 9 p.m.) provides a rare threat to the Bulldogs. Gonzaga (26-1) is once again dominating an easy schedule. And, it crushed this BYU squad 92-69 as 13-point home favorites back on January 18. Gonzaga must regain some intensity after failing to cover four of their last five vs. inflated spreads. BYU (21-7) hopes to score a headline-making upset.
▪ Southern Miss has stayed well off the national radar this season. But, sometimes bad teams can be good bets. The Golden Eagles (9-18) have consistently played better than market expectations in recent action. They head into Saturday’s noon home tipoff vs. Middle Tennessee on a three-game cover streak, and are 7-2 ATS their last nine games.
Even if you’re not ready to bet college basketball, watch those marquee matchups to scout possibilities for March Madness.