Why Mississippi State basketball should be a safe bet going forward in SEC play
Both Ole Miss (0-3) and Mississippi State (1-3) are off to disappointing starts in SEC college basketball play. Recent results on the floor and versus market expectations show that State is more likely to be a factor (and smart betting choice) from this point forward.
▪ Mississippi State (-2.5) mauled Missouri 72-45 this past Tuesday night. It was their first straight up win in league play, but second straight cover after taking LSU to the wire in Baton Rouge as a seven-point underdog. The Bulldogs shot 60% on two-point attempts vs. Mizzou, and forced 19 turnovers. A great all-around game.
VSiN has mentioned often that Ken Pomeroy’s computer rankings are deeply respected by betting markets (kenpom.com). Pomeroy had Miss. State just inside the nation’s top 50 at midweek. That puts them on the bubble for NCAA Tournament consideration even with the 1-3 start in league play.
State will be a home favorite Saturday night against Georgia (SEC Network, 7:30 p.m.)
▪ Ole Miss (+12) was outclassed at Florida 71-55 Tuesday. The Rebels let the Gators shoot 65% on two-point attempts, and flailed in catch-up mode with just three makes in 16 three-point attempts. The fact that Ole Miss was getting 12 points shows market disrespect. That would be +9 on a neutral floor, clearly below what you’d expect for a Dance-bound dog.
It was the sixth straight non-cover for Ole Miss, who is also 2-8 ATS their last 10 games against the spread. The market is having trouble “catching down” to the Rebels’ disappointing level of play. Pomeroy currently has Ole Miss outside his top 100. That’s also true on both sides of the floor in offensive and defensive efficiency. A lot of issues to fix heading into Saturday night’s home game against LSU (ESPN2, 7 p.m.).
VSiN looks forward to covering SEC basketball for you from an analytics and sports betting perspective on these pages through the season. Let’s paint the current picture with midweek national computer rankings from Pomeroy…
Auburn 15, Kentucky 20, Arkansas 28, LSU 31, Florida 32, Mississippi State 49, Tennessee 52, Alabama 53, Missouri 68, Georgia 78, South Carolina 105, Ole Miss 107, Texas A&M 136, Vanderbilt 160.
Disappointing at the top, without a clear national championship threat given Kentucky’s inconsistency. But, plenty of depth in terms of potential Dance spoilers.
Other Notes
▪ Offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) continues to be a problem across the sport. Three-pointers are harder to hit with this season’s further distance. Many offenses are forfeiting offensive rebound opportunities to get players back on defense. And, there are always complaints from long-time fans about individual play getting in the way of offensive teamwork.
Look at the declines for “best in the country” from last season to this in Pomeroy’s data (which is also adjusted for strength of schedule):
Current 2019-2020 leaders: Gonzaga 116.0, Dayton 115.8, Duke 115.2, Iowa 114.9, LSU 114.7.
Final 2018-19 leaders: Gonzaga 124.5, Virginia 123.4, Tennessee 122.7, Purdue 122.5, Michigan State 121.0.
Both Mississippi schools in the SEC have dropped about nine points per 100 possessions. Mississippi State is down from 117.7 to 108.8. Ole Miss has fallen from 113.2 to 104.0. If you thought offense was uglier in games you watched on TV this season, you weren’t imagining it. It’s a sport-wide phenomenon.
College basketball bettors should direct their focus toward lineups with a proven ability to score efficiently, particularly as underdogs. Make it a point of emphasis to study offensive execution now for teams you’ll be handicapping through March.
▪ Only four teams left in the NFL playoffs. Championship odds from the Westgate in Las Vegas: Kansas City 7/5, San Francisco 3/2, Green Bay 7/1, Tennessee 8/1.
Sunday’s betting schedule: Tennessee at Kansas City (CBS, 2:05 p.m.), followed by Green Bay at San Francisco (FOX, 5:40 p.m.) We could see both favorites shuttle between -7 and -7.5 from now until kickoff.
Recreational bettors like taking favorites in this price range, particularly when -7 means a push (no lost money) if the game lands exactly on seven. Sharps like taking underdogs above that key number, particularly dogs with quarterbacks who can come through the back door from a late deficit if needed.
There’s a lot more “square” money from the public than sharp money from pro bettors in championship betting attractions. Best guess is that both games close at “favorites -7.5.” It’s possible either favorite (or both) could test eight if a bandwagon effect starts rolling through the weekend.