As conference play fires up, here are some tips on how to approach basketball bets
With college basketball conference action set to begin for many SEC teams this Saturday (including Mississippi State hosting league power Auburn at 3:30 p.m. on the SEC Network), it’s the perfect time to review some handicapping fundamentals.
The great thing about conference action…whatever the conference…is that all the teams play very similar schedules. Everyone starts over, within confined parameters. Handicappers and bettors can throw out possibly polluted perceptions from pre-conference schedules that were too easy (cupcakes on parade) or too difficult (made-for-TV testers).
Some leagues play full double round-robin rotations. Others are too big for that, but still play so many games that “strength of schedule” within the league is extremely similar. That makes scoring margins, team stats, and player stats great indicators for quality.
Believe it or not, schedule strengths usually settle within four or five games of league action. That doesn’t seem like a huge sample size. And, nobody should bet irresponsibly large amounts because of what they see in a handful of games. But, observers will see the general picture come into focus that quickly, even if they completely ignored the season up until that point.
You regulars know VSiN likes to emphasize these team stat categories in college hoops: offensive and defensive efficiency (scoring adjusted for pace), turnover percentage on both sides of the floor, and rebound percentage. If you have a favorite conference, it would behoove you to log these stats on a game-by-game basis. That’s a manageable task for one (or two) leagues because teams typically play just two games a week.
If you’re not comfortable with advanced analytic stats, simply using standard old-school box scores to log two-point shooting, three-point shooting, rebound differential, and turnover differential will get you there. You’ll recognize team strengths and weaknesses quickly.
Should you study individual players? This is generally overrated in game broadcasts, where announcers want to focus on star power to generate narratives. There are certainly teams where one main guy is “the straw that stirs the drink.” Nothing wrong with looking for that workhorse, then fading his team when he’s hurt or worn down later in the season. (You’ll learn to fade head coaches who overemphasize a workhorse at the expense of building a complete team.)
Many of you are probably wondering about the value of home court advantage in conference play. The market typically uses about three points as a general rule. Some sharps only use 2.5 points in geographically compact leagues. Others emphasize “road court disadvantage” more for very young travelers lacking experience.
TV broadcasts that focus on crowd sizes are prone to exaggerate the impact of home court. Boisterous student bodies don’t push the number much higher than three. Empty arenas may not knock it down. Part of the “advantage” for hosts involves visitors’ travel fatigue and unfamiliarity with shooting backdrops.
Now that college football almost out of the picture, VSiN will talk much more about college hoops handicapping from now through March Madness. Relative parity amongst “dance caliber” teams will create an intriguing challenge.
Other Notes
▪ Ole Miss wraps up non-conference play Saturday with a road tester at Wichita State (3 p.m.). The Rebels open SEC action Tuesday at Texas A&M (SEC Network, 8 p.m.).
▪ In college football, Southern Miss is still a clear underdog to Tulane in Saturday’s Armed Forces Bowl (ESPN, 10:30 a.m.). Sharps and recreational bettors are holding off investing just in case there’s late-breaking news about player suspension or injuries. Barring surprises, it’s likely the Golden Eagles will close near +7 in Fort Worth.
Will sharps consider this underdog? Possibly for value, but not with enthusiasm. Southern Miss had unimpressive stats this season (particularly with a turnover differential of -9) while playing a schedule that ranked only #111 in Jeff Sagarin’s market-respected computer ratings at USA Today.
▪ An SEC team is once again favored to win the national championship game. LSU was bet hard by sharps and recreational bettors at early lines of -3, -4, and even -5 vs. Clemson for the title tilt to be played Monday, January 13 (ESPN, 7 p.m.).
LSU continued its recent reign of terror with a 63-28 semifinal rout of Oklahoma. The Tigers (-12.5) won total yardage 692-322 on 9.4 to 5.2 yards-per-play. Clemson (-2.5) needed tough red zone defense and friendly officiating to survive Ohio State 29-23. The Buckeyes won total yardage 516-417.