Coast casinos will be busy Thanksgiving with bettors for Saints-Falcons and Egg Bowl
Thanksgiving will be extra special for football fans and bettors this year because the traditional Egg Bowl featuring Ole Miss and Mississippi State will be joined on Thursday night’s schedule by the New Orleans Saints.
Unfortunately, these attractions will be running at almost the same time! Get two TVs ready for Rebels/Bulldogs (ESPN, 6:30 p.m.) and Saints/Falcons (NBC, 7:20 p.m.).
Ole Miss/Mississippi State in Starkville should be played with bowl-level intensity. The hosts (5-6) will be playing for actual bowl eligibility (and possibly to save their head coach’s job). The visiting Rebels (4-7) will treat this as their postseason, looking to transition from “competitive losses” to outright upsets.
▪ Ole Miss is 6-1 against the spread its last seven outings. And, the non-cover was by just one point in a seven-point loss to Texas A&M as a six-point underdog. But, the only straight up victories came against very bad Vanderbilt and New Mexico State teams. You don’t earn bowl eligibility by covering spreads.
▪ Mississippi State is only 2-5 against the spread during that same period. The two covers came with talent advantages over Arkansas and Abilene Christian. Betting markets expected much more from the Bulldogs this season vs. its SEC brethren.
Those betting markets have been hopping between pointspreads of Mississippi State -2.5 and -3 through the week. That’s an astonishing adjustment from last summer’s “Game of the Year” estimate of State -14 (many sports books post marquee matchups and rivalry games in the summer for tourists).
Home field advantage is usually worth 2.5 to three points for in-state matchups, meaning markets now see these teams as virtually even on a neutral field.
Bettors know that three is a key number in football because victories by a field goal are common. Recreational bettors (and State fans) see -2.5 as appealing in that light. Sharps (and Rebels fans) are taking the full +3 when it’s available.
Saints/Falcons is also sitting near a key number. New Orleans -6.5 appeals to recreational bettors. When the line rises to seven (one touchdown and a PAT), sharps move on the underdog Falcons. Many shops have been sticking on seven, but charging -120 vigorish on Atlanta. At those stores, a bet on the Saints -7 is even money.
New Orleans continues to befuddle fans and investors with shaky play since Drew Brees returned from injury. The Saints dodged a bullet this past Sunday with a last-second 34-31 win over Carolina. Ten-point favorites aren’t supposed to sweat tight finishes!
Stats were even across many categories. New Orleans won the first half 17-15, the second half 17-16. Smart time management allowed the Saints to survive a “last team to have the ball wins” scenario.
Atlanta’s recent rally was derailed Sunday by Tampa Bay in a 35-22 loss. The Falcons sure weren’t intimated by the Saints in their last meeting. Atlanta (+14) ended a seven-game losing streak with a 26-9 stunner in the Superdome.
Other Notes
▪ Updated Super Bowl odds from the respected Westgate in Las Vegas entering the new week: New England 11/4, New Orleans 4/1, Baltimore 9/2, San Francisco 6/1, Kansas City 10/1, Seattle and Minnesota both 12/1, Green Bay 16/1, Dallas and Houston both 30/1.
The big mover was Green Bay downward, as a bad loss at San Francisco may ultimately prevent the Packers from earning a top two seed and an opening week bye.
▪ Westgate’s updated NCAA championship odds entering the new week: Ohio State 8/5, Clemson 9/4, LSU 3/1, Georgia 10/1, Alabama 16/1, Oklahoma 30/1 and Utah are both 30/1.
▪ Bowl-bound Southern Miss suffered a disappointing 28-10 home loss to Western Kentucky last Saturday. Yardage stats were relatively even. But, Southern lost the turnover category 3-1. One of those was a fumble that was returned for a Hilltoppers touchdown. The Golden Eagles were also one of four on fourth down tries. Those three failures were virtual turnovers as well.
Saturday, Southern Miss closes out its regular season at Florida Atlantic (NFL Network, 2:30 p.m.). The Golden Eagles enter 7-4 straight up, 6-5 against the spread. CUSA East leading Florida Atlantic is 8-3 straight up, 7-4 ATS.
FAU will probably close around 9-point favorites. Sharps would be very interested in Southern Miss at +10 if it becomes available.
▪ In the NBA, the New Orleans Pelicans will spend the Thanksgiving holiday with the Oklahoma City Thunder. They play a home-and-home Friday in OKC, Sunday in the Big Easy. They’ve already played once this season, with the Thunder winning 115-104 back on November 2 as two-point favorites.
New Orleans has shown a bit of a home/road split so far in the 2019-20 season. The Pellies have a winning ATS record at home, but are 3-6 vs. the number on the road.
▪ VSiN returns Saturday to talk about market perspective in Ohio State/Michigan and other college football rivalry matchups…and to look at weekend NFL showdowns with playoff implications.
This story was originally published November 26, 2019 at 11:40 AM.