Ole Miss and Mississippi State may catch LSU, Alabama at the perfect time
One week after “the game of the year” in college football, Mississippi schools in the SEC have a chance Saturday to take advantage of LSU and Alabama hangovers.
▪ Ole Miss hosts No. 1 LSU (ESPN, 6 p.m.) fresh on the heels of the Tigers’ stunning 46-41 win in Tuscaloosa. LSU outgained Alabama 559-541 thanks to a 31-39-0-393 passing performance from heavy Heisman Trophy favorite Joe Burrow. If you watched, you know the Tigers were sky high for the biggest game in recent program history, and in the careers of Burrow and head coach Ed Orgeron.
Can LSU maintain that level of intensity and focus in Oxford? Unlikely.
The Rebels will likely close near 21-point underdogs. While their soft defense will definitely be overmatched, they might be able to force mistakes from a physically and mentally weary guest.
▪ Mississippi State hosts No. 4 Alabama (ESPN, 11 a.m.). Yes, the Crimson Tide will be in a classic “bounce back” spot in Starkville. But, history has shown that undefeated teams often suffer a sustained slump after their first loss of the season. It takes awhile to regain form and confidence…particularly if the loss was in a physical battle.
This point spread has also stuck around 21 points through the week.
While facing SEC superpowers is never a scheduling gift, neither Ole Miss nor Mississippi State could ask for a better spot on the calendar. There’s a good chance one or both visiting opponents won’t be hitting on full cylinders. Both hosts will be fresh as daisies…
▪ Ole Miss (-28) crushed winless New Mexico State 41-3 last Saturday in a virtual scrimmage. The Rebels won total yardage 606-193, yards-per-play 7.6 to 3.3, rushing yards 447-61, and third down conversions 63% to 29%. Nice tune up!
Though Ole Miss is 4-6 straight up on the season, it has covered 60% of its games against the spread.
▪ Mississippi State enjoyed a bye last week. Its prior outing was a 54-24 shellacking of Arkansas as a 7-point favorite. Best performance of the year by a mile. A great tune-up followed by extra rest! Though, that win only brought the Bulldogs to 4-5 straight up, 3-6 ATS.
On paper, both Mississippi schools are out-talented and outmatched. Bettors must decide if betting markets are properly reflecting emotional, physical and preparation-based intangibles.
Other Notes
▪ Speaking of Arkansas, the Razorbacks fired head coach Chad Morris after last week’s humiliating 45-19 home loss to Western Kentucky as one-point underdogs. A few weeks ago, VSiN discussed how poor pointspread performance is often a precursor to coaching changes. Spreads define “expectations” on a weekly basis. Coaches who aren’t covering the spread aren’t playing to expectations.
Arkansas is currently 2-8 straight up and ATS, missing the market price by 20.5, 9, 23, and 25 points its last four games. Wasn’t hard to see this coming.
▪ Southern Miss sure isn’t looking to change its head coach. Jay Hopson’s Golden Eagles are already bowl eligible with a 6-3 record. Last week they bullied Alabama-Birmingham 37-2 as six-point favorites. Southern Miss won total yardage 325-173 and yards-per-play 5.8 to 3.0, while holding UAB to just 2 of 14 on third down tries.
Saturday, the Eagles will likely close near 17-point favorites on the road at Texas-San Antonio (5 p.m.). Toughies with Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky follow.
▪ In the NBA, the New Orleans Pelicans have been disappointments straight up and against the spread in the young 2019-20 season. And two tough challenges are imminent.
Thursday, New Orleans will host Western Conference co-favorites the Los Angeles Clippers (neck-and-neck atop futures boards with the Lakers). That’s followed Saturday by a trip to Miami to play the surprising Heat (both games tip off at 7 p.m.).
Don’t bet the Pellies until they play better defense. They were second-worst in the NBA in points allowed per possession entering the week. Look to bet Miami at value prices unless the market catches up to that hot start. The Heat are quietly near the top of the league in defensive efficiency.
▪ VSiN returns Saturday to recap the New Orleans Saints’ shocking 26-9 loss to the Atlanta Falcons as 14-point favorites. Sportsbooks made a fortune in that game because so many bettors used the Saints to win straight up in money-line parlays. Anything can happen on any given Sunday! We’ll also update odds to win the Super Bowl, and preview Sunday’s game at Tampa Bay from a market perspective.