How many games will Mississippi State win? Here are projections for all 12 games.
The Mississippi State football team is a popular dark-horse pick in the SEC West this season, but it’s hard to nail down how good the 2018 Bulldogs will actually be, considering it’s transitioning to a new head coach in Joe Moorhead.
The former Penn State offensive coordinator enters his first season at MSU with plenty of talent to work with and lofty expectations. Whether the team will play the role of spoiler for Alabama and Auburn in the SEC West will rely upon whether the new head coach can quickly install an offense that produced big numbers during his time in Happy Valley.
He’s returning from a nasty ankle injury in the 2017 season finale, but Nick Fitzgerald is back for his senior year as the Bulldogs’ starting quarterback. It remains to be seen how well he will fit into Moorhead’s offense, but it’s a fair bet that he’ll hit the ground running.
One area where Fitzgerald can improve is in his completion percentage after hitting 55.6 percent of his passes last season, just a slight improvement on 54.3 from his sophomore campaign.
The play of the receivers was underwhelming a year ago, but redshirt freshman Austin Williams (an Ocean Springs product) will look to bolster that group.
On defense, Mississippi State should be loaded. Junior defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons will again be one of the best players in the SEC and there really isn’t a weakness on the defense as a whole.
Las Vegas gives MSU an over/under on wins of 8.5.
Here are projections for all 12 games on the Mississippi State football schedule this season, including the level of confidence I have with each pick.
Sept. 1 — Stephen F. Austin — The Lumberjacks are an FCS program coming off a 4-7 season.
Projection – Win.
Level of confidence – It’s a lock.
Sept. 8 — at Kansas State — This will be a good early test on the road, but Kansas State is not expected to be a Big 12 title contender. The Bulldogs will have a shot to gain some Top 10 consideration with a convincing victory.
Projection — Win.
Level of confidence — It could flip the other way.
Sept. 15 — Louisiana-Lafayette — Mississippi State has a valuable resource on the staff in former ULL head coach Mark Hudspeth, who has in-depth knowledge of the Cajuns’ roster. The Cajuns are entering their first season under former Arizona State offensive coordinator Billy Napier.
Projection — Win.
Level of confidence — It’s a lock.
Sept. 22 — at Kentucky — Kentucky is expected to be as mediocre as ever, potentially hovering around the .500 mark. The Bulldogs have won eight of their last nine games against the Wildcats.
Projection — Win.
Level of confidence — It’s a lock.
Sept. 29 — Florida — This game will be a doozy in Starkville with former MSU coach Dan Mullen making the trek back to Starkville after leading the program to a record of 69-46 in nine seasons. The Bulldogs will be absolutely amped for this one.
Projection — Win.
Level of confidence — It could flip the other way.
Oct. 6 — Auburn — If the Bulldogs win this one, the 2018 season could turn into a special campaign. With Jarrett Stidham back behind center at Auburn, expect the Tigers to light up opponents on offense.
Projection — Loss.
Level of confidence — It could flip the other way.
Oct. 20 — at LSU — I’m not buying the Bayou Bengals this year. Mississippi State has a chance to hand LSU a second consecutive lop-sided loss and this one will be in Baton Rouge.
Projection — Win.
Level of confidence — It could flip the other way.
Oct. 27 — Texas A&M — The Aggies are in their first season under Jimbo Fisher and have a chance to turn the SEC West upside down with a strong season. However, I don’t see them winning in Starkville this season.
Projection — Win.
Level of confidence — It could flip the other way.
Nov. 3 — Louisiana Tech — MSU should be wary of a strong Tech team that should be improved over last year’s 7-6 squad. It could be the ultimate trap game with Alabama looming the next week. I still see State picking up the win at home.
Projection — Win.
Level of confidence — It’s a lock.
Nov. 10 — at Alabama — They will instantly start constructing a Joe Moorhead statue in Starkville if the Bulldogs pull this one off. MSU is in search of its first win in Tuscaloosa since 2006 — the year before Nick Saban became the Alabama head coach.
Projection — Loss.
Level of confidence — It could flip the other way.
Nov. 17 — Arkansas — The Hogs shouldn’t be that hot this season.
Projection — Win.
Level of Confidence — It’s a lock.
Nov. 22 — at Ole Miss — The Rebels hope this will turn into a shootout, but I see too much talent on defense for the Bulldogs to allow that to happen. Moorhead will hold the Golden Egg high in his first season.
Projection — Win.
Level of confidence — It could flip the other way.
FINAL PROJECTION FOR MISSISSIPPI STATE: I see the Bulldogs finishing 10-2 with a 6-2 mark in the SEC, giving Moorhead an impressive debut.
This story was originally published August 22, 2018 at 1:55 PM.