LSU’s performance vs. Clemson showed an SEC bias was based in reality
LSU (-4.5) made it 10 college football national championships in the last 14 seasons for the Southeastern Conference with a 42-25 win over Clemson this past Monday night.
LSU won total yardage 628-394, yards-per-play 7.8 to 6.1, third down conversions 29% to 9% (Clemson just 1 of 11), and turnovers 1-0.
The expected battle of quarterbacks didn’t come to fruition. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence faded badly in the second half. Several incomplete passes led to punts. A late Lawrence fumble iced LSU’s win. Joe Burrow’s final passing line was 31-49-0-463 with five touchdown passes. He added 58 rushing yards. Lawrence finished 18-37-0-234 and no TD passes with 49 rushing yards.
That closed out an incredible string of late season performances vs. quality opponents. LSU covered by double digits against Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Oklahoma (the first three would then go on to win their bowl games). Monday, the Tigers cashed by 12.5 points over a Clemson team that had eliminated powerful Ohio State in the national semifinals.
LSU wasn’t just better than everyone. LSU was a lot better than other national powers.
Betting markets never did catch up to this amazing combination of elite talent and state-of-the-art schematics. LSU ended the season 15-0 straight up, 10-5 against the spread for a 67% cash rate.
Another college football season comes to an end with reality clearly having an SEC bias. Congrats to those of you who took advantage of LSU’s stellar play.
Other Notes
▪ The Westgate in Las Vegas updated championship odds for January of 2021 before LSU/Clemson even started. Clemson (with Lawrence and other stars returning) sat atop the futures board at 9/4. Ohio State was next at 3/1. Alabama was the first SEC team listed at 6/1. LSU and Georgia were both 8/1. Others of note: Florida 14/1, Auburn and Texas A&M both 30/1, and Tennessee 100/1.
▪ Mississippi State surprised the college football world last week by hiring Mike Leach away from Washington State to replace Joe Moorhead as head coach. Such a high-profile move hadn’t been on the media radar. And, Leach was coming off a disappointing 3-6 record in Pac 12 play and a 31-21 bowl loss to Air Force.
Sharps in Las Vegas are skeptical that Leach’s “Air Raid” offense can thrive in the physically brutal SEC. His quarterbacks took a lot of hits in the Big 12 and Pac 12, softer defensive conferences. And, his defenses were notoriously vulnerable up front vs. quality. That’s going to win games in the SEC?!
In eight seasons in the Pac 12 (2012-19), Leach’s Cougars went 36-36 in league play, 2-4 in bowls, and only finished ranked in the top 25 once. He did have more success with Texas Tech in the Big 12 (2000-09), with a 47-33 league record and a 5-4 record in bowls.
VSiN will monitor the markets for news on “Regular Season Win Totals” becoming available. Colorful Leach won’t have any trouble attracting media attention. He will have to earn the respect of experienced bettors as an SEC coach.
▪ In the NBA, the New Orleans Pelicans have become quite a betting story since the last time we checked in. Following a 13-game losing streak (1-11-1 ATS) that ended in mid-December, the Pellies are 9-4 straight up, 10-2-1 ATS since.
New Orleans is back on the floor Thursday night vs. Utah. Their most recent effort was a 117-110 overtime win Monday at Detroit as a 5-point underdog. A great sign for effort and enthusiasm…the Pellies won the rebounding category by a whopping 61-43 margin.
It was impossible to envision the week before Christmas. But, New Orleans could conceivably make a playoff run. The Pelicans were only four games out of a spot in the brackets when the week began. It’s fully possible that the eighth seed in the West will go to a team with a losing record. Zion Williamson may see significant action moving forward. Still half a season left!
This story was originally published January 15, 2020 at 11:28 AM.