Here’s a betting breakdown of LSU-Clemson for the national title game
LSU will try to make it 10 national championships in the last 14 seasons for the Southeastern Conference when it clashes with Clemson Monday night (ESPN, 7 p.m.).
The Bayou Bengals won after the 2007 season, the second of seven straight for the SEC from 2006-2012. Alabama reclaimed supremacy for the league after the 2015 and 2017 seasons.
For Monday’s much anticipated Tiger tussle, betting markets made LSU the clear favorite over Clemson. An opener of LSU -3 (posted at Circa Sports in Las Vegas during the Clemson/Ohio State game) was bet up quickly to -5.5 and -6. It might be higher by the time you read this. Driving that rise…
▪ Recreational bettors who love taking favorites in big TV games because it’s more fun than sweating underdogs. It became much easier for “squares” to lay the points with the potent LSU offense after Clemson’s defense allowed 516 total yards to Ohio State.
▪ Mathematical modelers who emphasize recent form, because the Tigers have been seemingly scoring at will over quality opponents like Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Oklahoma.
There is a contingent of sharps who are trying to time the apex with the underdog. No reason to bet Clemson at +5.5 early if the number is going to rise. And, there’s no reason to settle for +6 if you think +7 might be available before kickoff. Be sure you monitor market prices through the weekend to spot when sentiment reverses.
For money line bettors, it’s likely LSU will close near -220 to win straight up (risk $220 to win $100, or anything in that ratio). Clemson should close near +180 to spring the upset (risk $100 to win $180). Those numbers suggest “the market” is saying LSU is 67% to lift the trophy.
Statistical analysis for LSU/Clemson can get dicey because they didn’t play even schedules. Jeff Sagarin’s market-respected ratings at USA Today show LSU playing the #10 ranked schedule through the season. Clemson, from the very soft ACC, ranked down at #61. With that handicapping hindrance in mind, let’s try to get a quick read on skill sets.
▪ Better on Offense: LSU was #1 in the country in yards-per-game despite facing a tough schedule. And the Tigers were peaking late. In recent weeks, they were playing at a level rarely seen in the sport. Clemson is terrific too, but wouldn’t seem as potent vs. the same schedule strength.
▪ Better on Defense: Clemson was #1 in the nation on this side of the ball. The poor showing in the middle of the field vs. Ohio State suggests a drop if the ACC entry had played a tougher slate. LSU’s defense was prone to play shootouts earlier in the season, but toughened up vs. A&M and Georgia. The nod probably goes to Clemson, but it could be close.
▪ Turnover Differential: Both played the percentage game well (+8 for LSU, +14 for Clemson), and probably would have been close to even vs. more similar schedules. Clemson didn’t turn the ball over vs. Ohio State despite playing from behind much of the night. No clear edge.
Whichever Tigers you’re rooting for, good luck with your bets!
NFL Playoff Notes
There are four pro postseason games for fans and bettors to enjoy before Monday’s college magic. Let’s start our coverage with updated odds to win the Super Bowl for the eight divisional round competitors from the Westgate in Las Vegas: Ravens 9/5, 49ers 7/2, Chiefs 7/2, Packers 7/1, Seahawks 14/1, Vikings 18/1, Texans 30/1, Titans 30/1.
Now, a quick look at market expectations for this weekend’s divisional round in kickoff order…
▪ San Francisco will likely close as 7-point favorites over Minnesota Saturday afternoon (NBC, 1:35 p.m.). The public likes the Niners at -6.5 (and historically bets rested home favorites in this round). Sharps would love a “defensive dog” like the Vikings if the line rose to +7.5. Minnesota is dealing with short rest and preparation after stunning New Orleans in overtime last Sunday.
▪ Baltimore will probably be -9.5 or -10 vs. Tennessee that evening (CBS, 5:15 p.m.). Sharp dog lovers will hit the Titans at +10 whenever its available.
▪ Kansas City’s in that same price range Sunday vs. Houston (CBS, 12:05 p.m.). Recreational bettors want to root for blowouts. This creates value on the dogs for sharps.
▪ Green Bay will probably close at -4 vs. Seattle in the finale (FOX, 3:40 p.m.). The Packers are the least-respected favorite because they struggled often down the stretch. The pointspread may have been below a field goal if the Seahawks weren’t shorthanded from injuries.
VSiN has put together an estimate of “market” Power Ratings based on the futures odds and pointspreads you just read. Jonathan Von Tobel (of “The Edge”) and I assess a point scale this way…
Ravens 89, Chiefs 88, 49ers 86, Packers 83, Vikings 82, Seahawks 82, Titans 82, Texans 81.
We use a standard three points for home field advantage. Those numbers suggest Baltimore would be about -4 over Kansas City of both win this week, while San Francisco would be about -6 to -7 hosting the NFC finals.
College Basketball Notes
Ole Miss will try to bounce back Saturday vs. Arkansas in Oxford (SEC Network, 5 p.m.) after road losses and non-covers to Wichita State (74-54 as seven-point underdogs) and Texas A&M (57-47 as three-point favorites). Mississippi is 9-5 straight up this season, but 6-8 against the spread.
Mississippi State visits LSU Saturday (ESPN, 7 p.m.), with a chance to catch an entire campus in a look-ahead spot toward the big football game. The Bulldogs are also looking to bounce back after getting routed 90-69 at Alabama Wednesday night as three-point underdogs. State is 9-5 straight up, 6-7-1 ATS.