Ratings show a five-team race for the SEC Tournament title. Here’s a close look.
Though the SEC Championship tournament is already under way in Nashville, the five teams with the best chance to win have yet to see action.
Market-respected analytics posted by Ken Pomeroy on twitter (@kenpomeroy), suggested a five-team race for the SEC title entering the tournament…
Kentucky 22%, Auburn 20.3%, LSU 17.2%, Florida 12.4%, Mississippi State 10.8%, Arkansas 4.6%, Alabama 3.2%, South Carolina 3%, Tennessee 2.9%, Missouri 1.9%, Ole Miss 0.6%, Texas A&M 0.6%, Georgia 0.4%, Vanderbilt 0.05%.
Bettors should remember that Pomeroy’s methodology hasn’t been keen on Kentucky ever since the Wildcats were shocked as huge favorites by Evansville early in the season. The Purple Aces would subsequently go 0-18 in Missouri Valley Conference play. Kentucky’s chances are likely better than shown.
Let’s take a quick peak at recent market performances of those five favorites. Florida is the first to see action, so we’ll start with the Gators…
▪ No. 5 seed Florida will take the floor in the second game of Thursday’s afternoon slate (SEC Network, 2:30 p.m.). The Gators closed the season well vs. expectations, covering five of their last eight. There were two failures vs. red-hot Kentucky, so Florida was 5-1 ATS vs. other late-season opponents. An inconsistent team that can get hot.
▪ No. 1 seed Kentucky plays Friday vs. the winner of Thursday’s Alabama/Tennessee game (ESPN, noon). The Wildcats stormed home with an 8-2 record against the spread. They are a threat to win both the SEC tournament, and the Big Dance if they can continue their recent high level of play.
▪ No. 4 seed Mississippi State is projected to play Florida Friday (ESPN, 2:30 p.m.) if the Gators advance. The Bulldogs have covered three of their last four, including a home rout of archrival Ole Miss last Saturday. They are also 11-6 ATS their last 17 games. Underrated for a few weeks.
▪ No. 2 seed Auburn plays Friday (SEC Network 6 p.m.) vs. the winner of Texas A&M/Missouri. The Tigers were overrated down the stretch, failing to cover six of their last nine and 15 of their last 24. Capable of big performances, but can’t they sustain quality?
▪ No. 3 seed LSU is projected to play No. 6 seed South Carolina Friday (SEC Network, 8:30 p.m.). These Tigers have also been overrated for awhile, posting a 6-11-1 ATS record their last 18 games. Recent shakiness from both Auburn and LSU could open the door for a surprise in the bottom half of the brackets.
VSiN likes to compile estimated “market” Power Ratings based on recent point spreads. Bettors are trying to beat the market. These help you see what the market is thinking so you can find potential value. Here were our numbers at the end of the regular season...
SEC: Kentucky 85, Florida 83, Auburn 82, LSU 82, Arkansas 81, Tennessee 81, Mississippi State 80, Alabama 79, South Carolina 79, Georgia 77, Ole Miss 76, Missouri 76, Texas A&M 75, Vanderbilt 71.
Remember that Auburn and LSU have been overrated at 82, while Mississippi State has been underrated at 80. Let’s see if the market adjusts in advance of the Dance.
The SEC is just one of several major conferences crowning tournament champions this week. Here are some handicapping tips to consider through the weekend for the SEC, ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, and Pac 12.
▪ Remember to study minute loads and bench contributions because of all the back-to-back dynamics in high-level tournament play.
▪ Don’t forget that three-point shooting could be more difficult against odd backdrops because of this season’s deeper distance.
▪ Be cautious about “bubble” teams, as inconsistent squads are just as likely to fold under pressure rather than rising to a “need to win” challenge.
▪ Recall that top seeds are known to underperform in major conference tournaments because there’s no sense of urgency. They also have a target on their backs from revenge-minded opponents looking to score upsets.
▪ Force yourself to read boxscores rather than assuming that a game’s final score told the story. It’s easy to just scoreboard watch other games while rooting for your bets. You need to know which teams advanced because they happened to shoot way over their heads one game, or had a huge edge in free throw attempts because of uneven officiating. And, you need to know which teams advanced despite shooting poorly, meaning they’re positioned for a much better result the next time out with normal shooting.
▪ Use our estimated “market” Power Ratings to project likely pointspreads for future games. Sharps attack soft openers. Try to think and bet like a sharp.
▪ If you like betting Over/Unders, be sure you’re paying attention to the impact of pace. Teams who like to run may be too tired when playing their third game in three days (or, fourth game in four days in larger leagues).
▪ Don’t get frustrated by losses in nail biters. A lot of bets will come right down to the wire because we have a slew of relatively evenly matched teams playing on neutral courts at lines priced near pick-em. You’re not going to win them all no matter how smart you are. You’re not going to lose them all no matter how unlucky. Frustrated bettors make bad choices. Worse thing you can do early in what many consider to be the most important betting month of the calendar year.