Here’s how the Vegas oddsmakers view Alabama after the Tua injury

Many of you watched it happen live in person or on TV. Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending hip injury this past Saturday in the Crimson Tide’s 38-7 win over Mississippi State in Starkville. Though his college career is over, the prognosis is hopeful for a return to full health and success at the next level.

What did the injury mean in the national championship chase? Alabama is still a very respectable 9-1 straight up, with its only loss coming against potential national No. 1 seed LSU. Surely a one-loss Alabama side is good enough to get a bid to the Final Four, right? And, then who knows?

Futures boards aren’t optimistic about Alabama’s championship chances. The Crimson Tide are currently fifth on the odds ledger at the respected Westgate in Las Vegas (equivalent win percentages in parenthesis)...

LSU 9/4 (31%), Ohio State 9/4 (31%), Clemson 11/4 (27%), Georgia 8/1 (11%), Alabama 18/1 (5%).

Sportsbooks build a universe larger than 100% to create a house edge. That’s why those five add up to 105% by themselves. Other longshots include: Oklahoma 25/1 (4%), Utah 25/1 (4%), Oregon 40/1 (2.4%), and Penn State 40/1 (2.4%).

Nobody else is better than 200/1. Minnesota fell to that mark after losing at Iowa this past weekend. Baylor dropped to 1000/1 after losing at home to Oklahoma.

If you’re wondering how to turn odds into win percentage equivalents, simply divide the number on the right (the denominator) by the sum of the two numbers. LSU is 9/4, four divided by 13 is .307 or 31%.

The SEC is almost 100% certain to get at least one team in the Final Four, and is well-positioned to qualify two. Alabama’s pointspread at Auburn next week will offer clues as to how it would be priced in potential Final Four matchups. As talented and deep as the Crimson Tide are, they would probably be neutral field underdogs to LSU, Ohio State, or Clemson with Mac Jones at quarterback.

Other Notes

▪ Ole Miss moved to 7-4 against the spread with a home cover vs. LSU last Saturday. The Rebels closed +21.5 in a 58-37 loss. Ole Miss gained over 600 total yards, but allowed more than 700 to the purple and gold juggernaut.

The Rebels are off this week before wrapping up the 2019 campaign in the Egg Bowl vs. rival Mississippi State. Ole Miss is 4-7 straight up, meaning they can’t reach the six-win mark to qualify for a postseason appearance.

▪ Mississippi State is 4-6 straight up after last week’s loss to Alabama (a non-cover at +19). The Bulldogs can still earn a bowl bid by beating Abilene Christian as a huge favorite this week (SEC Network, 6:30 p.m.) and then knocking off Ole Miss.

State has been a big money loser for backers, now 3-7 ATS.

▪ Southern Miss used big plays to win and cover at Texas-San Antonio 36-17 last Saturday as 17-point favorites. The Golden Eagles won total yardage 493-422, and yards-per-play 6.8 to 5.5. The offense moved in fits and starts though, managing only 3 of 14 on third down conversions (21%).

USM will need more consistency the next two weeks vs. C-USA East contenders Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic. USM opened as 5.5 point favorites vs. Western this past Sunday at Circa Sports in Las Vegas. Sharps hit the dog, bringing the pointspread down to Southern Miss -4.5 in short order.

The Golden Eagles are already bowl eligible with a 7-3 record straight up. They’re also 7-3 against the spread off of three straight covers. That brings the combined “Magnolia Index” (Ole Miss, Miss. State and Southern Miss) to 17-14 ATS, which moves to 16-13 if you take out the game USM and State played against each other.

▪ In the NBA, the New Orleans Pelicans finally started winning some games after a dreadful 1-7 start. Their recent surge back to respectability was highlighted by a 132-127 win over the Los Angeles Clippers as 3.5-point underdogs. They’re back on the floor Thursday visiting surprising Phoenix (TNT, 9:30 p.m.), and again Saturday at Utah (NBA TV, 8 p.m.)

▪ VSiN returns Saturday to recap the New Orleans Saints’ 34-17 victory over Tampa Bay that got the season back on track…and to preview Sunday’s home game against Carolina (FOX, noon).

Note on your refrigerator calendar now that the Saints will be playing just four days later on Thanksgiving night in Atlanta (NBC, 7:20 p.m.). Bettors should have two TV’s ready…Ole Miss/Mississippi State is also a holiday treat (ESPN, 6:30 p.m.). Quite a cornucopia!