Can red-hot Southern Miss baseball earn a national top-8 seed for first time?
Southern Miss needed acts from God and the NCAA to host Super Regionals in 2022 and 2023. But there’s a real chance the Golden Eagles can earn the opportunity the most straightforward way possible for the first time this year.
The Sun Belt tournament welcomes one of college baseball’s hottest teams this week when USM visits Montgomery as the top seed for the first time since joining the conference.
A third league tournament title wouldn’t be required for a spot in the NCAA field for the Eagles and their 13th-ranked RPI. A fourth-time as regional host in 10 years is a near-lock, as well.
What’s never been awarded to USM is a national top-8 seed. The closest the program has come is the 11th in 2022. A top-eight seed would mean winning a regional grants a home super regional and a more favorable matchup.
Southern Miss has just a handful of games against undetermined opponents remaining before it turns its resume into the selection committee. Will it be enough to earn one of the coveted seeds?
RPI matters, mostly
Is a top-8 RPI necessary for a top-8 seed? Historically, no. But it helps. There is a significant correlation between the two.
Last season, seven of the top eight teams in RPI after conference tournaments were played were given a top-8 national seed. Only Coastal Carolina — eighth in RPI and 13th-seeded — was not and ironically replaced by LSU. The two would ultimately meet in the College World Series Final.
In 2024, the correlation was exact. Each of the top eight teams in RPI were given a top-8 seed.
But in 2023, two teams finished inside the magic line that were not handed national top-8 seeds. Those were the SEC’s South Carolina and Kentucky in favor of Stanford and Virginia.
The three teams in the last three years that missed a top-8 seed despite a top-eight RPI all had one thing in common: they had the fewest Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins of the top-eight RPI finishers. Coastal Carolina had just 15 and LSU had 24.
South Carolina and Kentucky, the latter ranked second in RPI, each had 20 such wins. Stanford had 24. Virginia, though, won only 18 Q1/2 games, but lost just 10 and was a perfect 25-0 in non-conference games.
The value placed on winning high-quad games by the committee is a good sign for USM. The Golden Eagles have more such wins than Texas, North Carolina, Alabama, USC, Florida, Nebraska, Texas A&M and Mississippi State. All of those teams are ranked higher than USM in RPI and four of them inside the top-eight.
But this is where earning the top seed in the SBC tournament may have been a detriment to the Eagles’ resume. Instead of potentially playing Louisiana on Wednesday, which would be a Quad 1 game, they’re guaranteed a Q3/4 game against one of Old Dominion, Georgia State or Marshall.
There will be opportunities, though. Southern Miss shares a side of the bracket with Troy and South Alabama while Coastal gets Texas State and App State. Troy and USA are both Q2 opponents and so is Texas State. But the Mountaineers are not.
Reaching the weekend would mean adding at least one Q2 win and possibly meeting Coastal on Championship Sunday, which would be a Q1 game for both teams.
Not enough, according to projections
Baseball America released its projected field Monday and gave USM a national No. 11-seed, matched up with national No. 6-seeded Auburn.
To really pile it on, they made Arkansas the 2-seed in Hattiesburg and High Point, potentially one of the top mid-majors in the entire field, the 3-seed.
The last two national top-8 seeds were projected to go to Alabama and Texas A&M. The Aggies have 19 Q1/2 wins and are 230th in non-conference strength of schedule, while the Tide are also below the 20-win mark in Q1/2 (and lost head-to-head to both USM and Troy).
On3 places a 10-seed on USM, but notes that the Eagles are “One of the first teams on the cusp of taking a top-eight spot.”
Finally, D1 Baseball comes the closest to pulling the trigger on a nationally-seeded Southern Miss by giving it a nine-seed with Tennessee in its regional and matched up with eighth-seed Texas A&M.
All three point to the still-alive possibility of USM earning a top-eight seed and the opportunity to play its way into it this week at Montgomery’s Riverwalk Stadium.
Southern Miss gets the low-seed out of Tuesday’s single elimination bracket and will play that game Wednesday at 4 p.m.
