Don’t count Southern Miss out of the C-USA title game just yet. Here’s what needs to happen
If the odds out of Las Vegas hold true, the Southern Miss football team will be playing for a spot in the Conference USA championship game when it travels to Florida Atlantic in the regular season finale.
USM (7-3, 5-1) and Louisiana Tech (8-2, 5-1) are tied atop the C-USA West standings, but the Bulldogs hold the head-to-head advantage thanks to a 45-30 over the Golden Eagles in Ruston on Oct. 19.
However, Louisiana Tech is in a tight spot with senior quarterback J’Mar Smith set to sit out his second consecutive game due to suspension this Saturday at UAB. His absence played a large role in a 31-10 loss at Marshall last week, opening the door for the Golden Eagles to get back in the mix in the West Division.
Southern Miss is a 4-point favorite for Saturday’s 2:30 p.m. home game against Western Kentucky, which still has an outside shot at winning the East Division at 6-4 overall and 4-2 in C-USA play.
La. Tech started the week as a 1-point underdog for Saturday’s game at UAB, but that quickly moved to 5 points when it became clear that Blazers (7-3, 4-2) would have its starting quarterback, redshirt sophomore Tyler Johnston, back from injury this week.
While USM will have the home field advantage, the Golden Eagles will have their hands full on Saturday. WKU is coming off a bye week after thumping Arkansas 45-19 in Fayetteville on Nov. 9. The Hilltoppers are a well-rounded team with a stout defense and a balanced offense.
Even if USM survives WKU, a difficult road trip awaits in the regular season finale at FAU (7-3, 5-1).
A look at the scenarios
Southern Miss will be the C-USA West champ if it wins both games and La. Tech loses once over the final two weeks. The Golden Eagles can also win the division if they win one of their remaining games Tech loses to both UAB and UTSA.
In a much more unlikely scenario, USM could lose each of its final two games and win the division if La. Tech loses twice, UTSA beats FAU and UAB falls to North Texas. That would create at least a four-way tie atop the West with USM, La. Tech, UAB and UTSA all sitting at 5-3.
To decide the four-way tie, the head-to-head record among those teams would come into play. UAB and USM would be the only teams with 2-1 records against that group. Thanks to USM’s 37-2 win over UAB, the Golden Eagles would be declared the division champion.
The site for the Conference USA title game is decided by which team has the best overall winning percentage in conference play. If both division champs have the same conference record, the team listed the highest in the College Football Playoff rankings would be the host.
There is currently no 130-team CFP poll available, but Southern Miss ranks No. 77 in the Sagarin Ratings. That puts USM behind the two teams tied at the top of the East Division — No. 68 FAU and No. 74 Marshall (7-3, 5-1).
Marshall, which holds the head-to-head advantage over FAU and WKU, is on track to win the East with a trip to Charlotte (5-5, 3-3) and a home game against FIU (5-5, 3-4) still on the schedule.
Injury report
Southern Miss has mostly avoided the injury bug this season, but there has to be concern that the Golden Eagles enter a crucial point of the season with a couple of banged up receivers.
Redshirt sophomore receiver/return man Jaylond Adams did not play in last week’s 36-17 win at UTSA due to an unspecified injury. In a sign that his availability could continue to be in question, Adams didn’t make the trip to San Antonio.
If Adams is unavailable going forward, that will remove a major piece of the USM passing attack and kick return unit. Along with his three kick returns for touchdowns, Adams has 48 receptions for 483 yards and two touchdowns.
Redshirt senior Jordan Mitchell, who has 22 catches for 369 yards and three touchdowns, hasn’t played since Sept. 28 with his own unspecified injury.
USM offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner indicated recently that Mitchell could return soon, and this week would be a good time to get him back. Redshirt junior Quez Watkins and junior Tim Jones are quarterback Jack Abraham’s top two options with a combined 96 catches for 1,536 yards and seven touchdowns, but Mitchell can provide an all-important third option in the passing game.
If Mitchell and Adams continue to be hobbled, it will be up to a pair of seniors, Neil McLaurin and Trevor Terry, to fill that role.
USM is deep at receiver, but it hurts to lose game-changing talent with so much on the line over the next two weeks.
This story was originally published November 20, 2019 at 1:02 PM.
