Is Southern Miss in the title mix? Here’s a deep dive on USM and a C-USA forecast.
With one of the nation’s toughest non-conference slates complete, the Southern Miss football team sits at 2-2 with plenty of reasons to be encouraged and areas to address headed into Conference USA play.
The Golden Eagles play host to UTEP at 6 p.m. on Saturday in a C-USA opener that should serve as a tune-up for much more difficult conference games to come. The Miners, who are 1-2 with their only win coming over FCS squad Houston Baptist, will roll into Hattiesburg as 26 ½-point underdogs.
Before we get into breaking down the Golden Eagles and predicting how they may fare the rest the way, we first have to take a look back at the first four contests.
USM 38, Alcorn State 10: The season-opening win over Alcorn State generally went as expected after overcoming some early hiccups on both sides of the ball.
Mississippi State 38, USM 15: The one game where USM can be criticized for not answering the bell was the the 38-15 defeat at Mississippi State. In retrospect, that’s a game that USM should have made much more competitive. The Golden Eagles didn’t finish drives in the red zone, played poorly on defense (especially in the secondary) and struggled on special teams. USM put up 344 yards of offense and was only out-gained by 42 yards. Mississippi State led 28-0 in the third quarter and showed it was the better team, but the performance by Southern Miss was well short of the team’s potential.
USM 47, Troy 42: The Sept. 14 victory stands out as one of the best road victories in Jay Hopson’s four seasons as the USM head coach, but even that game generated concern over the state of the defense. The Golden Eagles gave up 504 yards passing to Troy quarterback Kaleb Barker, who had four receivers clear 100 yards in the game.
Alabama 49, USM 7: Last week’s loss in Tuscaloosa was frustrating for USM fans to watch, but the Golden Eagles simply aren’t in the same class as the Crimson Tide (Few teams are). Tua Tagovailoa and college football’s best batch of receivers proved to be a rough match-up for the USM defense.
What we’ve learned
Reasons to be encouraged: Southern Miss has three of Conference USA’s top game-changers on offense in redshirt junior receiver Quez Watkins, redshirt sophomore receiver/return man Jaylond Adams and redshirt junior quarterback Jack Abraham. The trio led the way as USM put up 626 yards of offense, including 514 through the air, against Troy. Watkins and Adams combined for 18 catches for 389 yards with Adams providing a crucial kickoff return for a TD — his third kick return for a score this season.
While USM has yet to have a breakout performance in the ground game, it appears only a matter of time before the Eagles start to put up better numbers there. After playing SEC West defenses in Mississippi State and Alabama, Senior De’Michael Harris, a former receiver, is averaging 4.1 yards a carry and junior Kevin Perkins checks in at 4.2. Sophomore Trivenskey Mosley, who was clearly the team’s top back before going down with an injury in the season opener, has a good shot at returning in the first half of C-USA play.
The USM offensive line is significantly improved over the group from a year ago, giving up only six sacks and creating more space for the rushing attack. The Eagles allowed a total of 10 sacks through four games last year, including five to Louisiana-Monroe.
Areas of concern: There’s no question the unit that has to improve the most is the USM defense with much of the focus being on the Golden Eagles’ secondary.
USM has given up an average of 339 passing yards a game over the last three contests and that number could be much more gaudy if not for MSU and Alabama keeping the ball on the ground after building early leads. The struggles in the USM defensive backfield are baffling considering many of the same players in the starting lineup played key roles on a defense that gave up an average of 176 passing yards in 2018.
USM also did a better job of putting pressure on the quarterback a year ago, but defensive coordinator Tim Billings hasn’t had that many third-and-long situations this season to bring the blitz.
USM hasn’t exactly been hit by the injury bug, but it is currently without three key players in Mosley, redshirt junior linebacker Racheem Boothe and freshman guard Coker Wright. There’s hope that all three could return by the middle of October and it would be a lift if they were ready for the Oct. 12 home game against North Texas.
Predicting the C-USA slate
Southern Miss has already flipped one game that I predicted as a defeat back in July. I gave the Golden Eagles a 40 percent chance of winning at Troy and had the team finishing 7-5.
Abraham and the rest of the offense have been better than expected, but the defense has fallen well short of expectations.
Given how much talent and experience USM has on defense, it seems only a matter of time before they show improvement. While teams like North Texas and FAU have shown they can put up big numbers, this is not a season where the conference is stacked with explosive offenses.
With four games under their belt, here are my projections for the final eight games of the season for the Golden Eagles:
Sept. 28 — UTEP (1-2)
Breakdown: UTEP put up a fight in a 37-21 loss to a decent Nevada team last week, but the Miners don’t appear to be a great match against USM. The Golden Eagles’ weakness on defense is in the secondary and UTEP does not like to throw the ball. UTEP quarterbacks have thrown the ball only 56 times, completing 48.2 percent of their passes for 438 yards through three games.
Chance of a Southern Miss win: 90 percent.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 38, UTEP 14.
Oct. 12 — NORTH TEXAS (2-2, 1-0)
Breakdown: This game could decide the C-USA West. The Mean Green, which have won three straight over USM, remain a popular pick to win the division behind senior quarterback Mason Fine, who has yet to let loose against FBS competition. He has thrown for 940 yards this season, but 383 came against FCS program Abilene Christian. What makes UNT scary is its big-play rushing attack. Sophomore Tre Siggers has run for 395 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 7.9 yards a carry. Junior DeAndre Torrey, a Gautier native who led the Mean Green in rushing a year ago, has 211 yards and is averaging six yards a rush. The UNT defense has been up and down this year, putting in poor showings against Abilene Christian and SMU. USM will have to show more balance on offense in a game that has has all the markings of a shootout. Both teams will enter the game coming off a bye week.
Chance of a Southern Miss win: 55 percent.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 41, North Texas 35.
Oct. 19 — at LOUISIANA TECH (3-1, 1-0)
Breakdown: Southern Miss has won four straight against the Bulldogs and it appears that Hopson has an edge on Tech head coach Skip Holtz. La. Tech’s 3-1 record at this point is deceiving considering it has yet to beat an opponent who has a win over an FBS program.
Chance of a Southern Miss win: 60 percent.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 35, La. Tech 27.
Oct. 26 — at RICE (0-4)
Breakdown: In July, I gave USM a 90 percent chance of winning this game on the road. With the way Rice has hung with tough opponents like Army and Baylor, this appears to be a much stiffer task than previously expected. However, Rice is not a team that appears ready to exploit the USM secondary.
Chance of a Southern Miss win: 65 percent.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 31, Rice 20.
Nov. 9 — UAB (3-0)
Breakdown: UAB’s 3-0 record is as soft as they come. The Blazers have yet to beat a team that has a win over an FBS opponent and had a hard time defeating FCS program Alabama State in the season opener. That said, UAB sophomore quarterback Tyler Johnston III could prove to be a handful for the USM defense. He has completed 64.3 percent of his passes for 746 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. However, I expect the USM defense to have found its footing before the Blazers come to Hattiesburg.
Chance of a Southern Miss win: 65 percent.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 28, UAB 24.
Nov. 16 — at UTSA (1-3, 0-1)
Breakdown: Fourth-year UTSA head coach Frank Wilson’s job is on the line after a 3-9 season in 2018 and a woeful start to the 2019 campaign. It will be difficult for the Roadrunners to get to two wins in C-USA play.
Chance of a Southern Miss win: 95 percent.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 45, UTSA 13
Nov. 23 — WKU (1-2, 1-0)
Breakdown: It’s difficult to get a good read on the Hilltoppers for what has been a strange three-game stretch to start the season. This game is in Hattiesburg and USM should take care of business against an inconsistent WKU squad.
Chance of a Southern Miss win: 90 percent.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 38, WKU 21.
Nov. 30 — at FAU (2-2)
Breakdown: FAU sophomore quarterback Chris Robison appears to have to made major strides in his second season as the Owls’ starter. After throwing for 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2018, he has 10 touchdowns and one interception through four games. He has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,100 yards. Outside of Fine at North Texas, Robison is probably the best QB that USM will face in C-USA play. This will be a tough test on the road even if USM has locked up the West Division.
Chance of a Southern Miss win: 40 percent.
Score prediction: FAU 35, Southern Miss 31.
FINAL PREDICTION
I’ve upgraded my preseason prediction from a 7-5 mark to 9-3 with eight games remaining on the schedule. This would put USM in the C-USA title game and possibly against the same FAU squad that it will play in the regular season finale. North Texas, Louisiana Tech and FAU all stand out as games that could go either way.
This story was originally published September 25, 2019 at 2:44 PM.