Could Mo Tom be the Derby's longshot winner?

 Sun Herald Editor Blake Kaplan.
TIM ISBELL/THE SUN HERALD Sun Herald Editor Blake Kaplan.

My handicapping suggests this is a wide-open Kentucky Derby, so I'm going to go for some prices.

My top three contenders are Nyquist, Mohaymen and Mo Tom, with a slight lean toward Mo Tom to win it all.

Mo Tom encountered all sorts of traffic trouble in his last race, the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds.

If he can stay clear of the traffic, never an easy task in the Derby, he could swoop by everyone in the stretch.

Did I mention he's 20-1 on the morning line?

Mohaymen, at 10-1, also had trouble in his last race, the Florida Derby. I could see where he could bounce back nicely in the world's most famous horse race. And there's not really anything bad to say about Nyquist, the 3-1 favorite who is seven for seven in his lifetime. He looks solid on paper, and will be forwardly placed as they enter the stretch. But I'm not convinced he can hold off the closers.

So here are my recommended plays:

n Bet Mo Tom, the No. 4, across the board.

n Box all three of my horses in the exacta. That's a 4-13-14 exacta box.

Blake Kaplan, the Sun Herald's editor and vice president, covered horse racing for The Orange County Register in Southern California and once worked as a handicapper at the Fair Grounds. He has covered four Kentucky Derbies for the Sun Herald.