Adley Rutschman's Month-by-Month Stats Prove Why wRC+ Alone Lies to You

Adley Rutschman's month by month 2026 stats have fluctuated wildly. He was hot in March and April, forgot how to hit in May, and bounced back beginning in the month of June. Overall, Rutschman has raised his BA by .033 points since his ugly 2025 season and a July 9th Athlon article reported that Orioles manager Craig Albernaz rewarded Rutschman's offensive resurgence by letting him bat leadoff once again.

Evaluating Rutschman's 2026 season for fantasy baseball purposes can't be done by using just one metric. BABIP, wRC+ and xwOBA don't always move in unison, and isolating these stats when doing your player analysis can and cause you to overreact to a good or bad month and potentially miss out on a brewing future uptick in offensive production.

Before we move any further let's define wRC+, BABIP and wOBA/xwOBA.

Per MLB.com:

wRC+ measures a hitter's overall offensive value compared to league average. It takes ballpark factors and era played into account. League average wRC+ is 100.

BABIP measures a player's batting average on balls hit into the field of play, excluding outcomes not affected by opposing defenses like home runs and strikeouts. League average is usually approximately .300 but in 2026 average BABIP is .289.

wOBA is a version of on-base percentage that assigns a value on each event relative to projected runs scored. For example, a double is worth more than a single etc.

xwOBA is similar to wOBA but also takes expected quality of contact into account.

2026 league average wOBA (.317) and xwOBA (.318) are virtually the same.

April – When a Great Month Isn't What It Looks Like

Rutschman had a 197 wRC+ in his first 16 games, meaning he performed better than 97% of the league average hitters. His traditional stats in those early games looked like this:

.356 BA, 4 HR, 17 RBI in 16 games

A closer examination of Rutschman's underlying March/April stats shows that while his .362 BABIP was close to his traditional March/April .356 batting average, it was way above the .289 league average. His actual .453 wOBA was also significantly higher than the .317 major league average.

At the same time, his .324 xwOBA was only slightly higher than league average and appeared to provide a more realistic representation of Rutschman's offensive productivity up to that point.

With Rutschman's wOBA being .129 points higher than his xwOBA, and his .254 xBA being over 100 points lower than his actual BA, there might have been a bit of luck involved in his early season success. Those early season expected stats showed that his white-hot start was unsustainable, and foreshadowed...regression!

May – When a Bad Month Is Hiding the Opposite Story

On the surface, Rutschman's offense tanked in May. Rutschman's 81 wRC+ showed that he performed worse than 19% of big-league hitters in May. His traditional stats for the month were ugly:

.188 BA, 3 HR, 12 RBI in 26 games

His BABIP and wOBA were significantly below average at .195 and .285, respectively, and consistent with his below average traditional stats.

On a positive note, Rutschman's average exit velocity didn't change much from the previous month, and his plate discipline was still sound. His barrel rate actually increased from 7.8 in March/April to 10.0 in May.

In addition, Rutschman's .304 xBA, sub .200 BABIP, and his .395 xwOBA, which dwarfed his traditional wOBA, were all clear signs that dropping him would have been a severe overreaction.

In April, Rutschman's expected stats pointed to regression. In May they forecasted a bounce back.

June – Was the Bounce Even Real?

Rutschman's offense was back on track in June. His 95 wRC+ was only slightly below league average and except for his home run production, most of his other traditional stats seemed to normalize:

.255 BA, 1 HR, 13 RBI in 14 games

His wOBA (.306) and xwOBA (.301) were nearly identical. Rutschman's .245 xBA lagged behind his actual June BA but his .267 BABIP was close to his career .279 average. That 12-point gap left enough wiggle room for his BABIP to climb and to potentially take his actual batting average along for the ride.

The Counting Stats Never Moved – and That's the Whole Point!

Despite Rutschman's fluctuating advanced metrics, his overall RBI and runs scored production remained fairly constant. His home run production regressed as the season has progressed, but it's likely related to a swing change that caused a significant drop to his launch angle. That triggered a big drop in his Ideal Attack Angle % (% of competitive swings that fall within the 5 to 20% attack angle range) and led to an increase in his ground ball rate.

Rutschman's wRC+, BABIP and xwOBA have all experienced extreme value swings this season. In the short term, if they're viewed individually, they can be misleading and cause you to make bad decisions. But when analyzed together they can be used to detect future changes in offensive production and allow you to paint an accurate picture of what you can expect from a ball player moving forward and correctly put his past performance into perspective.

Questions About Adley Rutschman, Answered

Why did Adley Rutschman's stats look so different month to month in 2026?

His month-to-month production was driven by significant swings in metrics such as BABIP, wRC+, and xwOBA. His early-season production appeared stronger than his expected numbers suggested, May looked much worse than his underlying quality of contact indicated, and June showed a return toward more typical production, demonstrating how relying on a single statistic can create a misleading picture.

What does it mean when a player's xwOBA doesn't match their wRC+?

A difference between xwOBA and wRC+ can indicate that expected quality of contact and actual offensive production are telling different stories. Early in the season, Rutschman's actual production exceeded his expected results, while in May his expected production far outpaced his traditional numbers, illustrating why both metrics should be evaluated together.

Should I trust a player's counting stats (RBI, runs) to judge how well they're hitting?

No. Rutschman's RBI and run production remained relatively steady despite dramatic swings in his advanced offensive metrics. Counting stats alone did not reflect the underlying changes in his offensive performance, making advanced metrics valuable for identifying trends that traditional statistics may hide.

Is Adley Rutschman's recent hot stretch a real improvement or BABIP luck?

His June performance showed signs of stabilization, with his wOBA and xwOBA nearly matching and his BABIP sitting close to his career average. Evaluating whether the improvement is sustainable requires considering BABIP, xwOBA, and other underlying indicators together rather than relying on traditional statistics alone.

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This story was originally published July 17, 2026 at 12:18 PM.