Odds are Crimson Tide will win the SEC, but Vegas sees a few other contenders
Though Alabama is a prohibitive favorite to win the SEC Championship again this season, Mississippi State has a puncher’s chance, according to global betting markets.
Below is a composite of common prices across US and global sports books. Be sure you monitor prices posted at the Beau Rivage to see if local betting interest is causing any variation.
Top SEC Contenders
- Alabama 4/5
- Georgia 3/1
- Auburn 8/1
- Mississippi State 12/1
- Florida 16/1
- LSU 20/1
- Texas A&M 20/1
If you’re new to futures betting, the number on the right represents what you risk, the number on the left your profit. A $5 bet on Alabama would win you $4 (meaning the sports book would pay $9 to you after a win, returning your initial stake and adding in your profit). You can bet anything in that ratio. Betting $50 wins you $40. Betting $100 wins you $80. Betting $500 wins you $400, and so on.
Of course, as is typically the case in gambling, the larger the risk and the greater your return. Betting $100 on Georgia would yield a profit of $300 if the Bulldogs won the SEC with a victory in the conference championship game. A $100 bet on Auburn profits $800. A $100 bet on Mississippi State profits $1,200.
Those new to betting (and many veterans!) don’t have an instinctive sense of what those odds really mean in terms of likelihood. How often will a 4/5 favorite win? What about a 20/1 longshot like LSU?
When considering your bets, it can be helpful to turn those odds into their percentage equivalent. We talked about this last weekend when discussing the New Orleans Saints’ outlook for 2018. You do that by taking the number on the right, and dividing it by the sum of both numbers. With Alabama at 4/5, you take the five … divided it by nine … which gives you 56%. For Georgia at 3/1, one divided by four is 25%. Here’s that same chart with the percentage win equivalents in parenthesis.
- Alabama 4/5 (56%)
- Georgia 3/1 (25%)
- Auburn 8/1 (11%)
- Mississippi State 12/1 (8%)
- Florida 16/1 (6%)
- LSU 20/1 (5%)
- Texas A&M 20/1 (5%)
If you’re good at math, you probably already noticed how the deck is stacked against bettors. Those seven teams by themselves (out of a 14-team league) add up to 116%! Sports books create a universe larger than 100% to represent the house edge. When betting futures, you’re not just trying to outsmart the opinions of oddsmakers. You must also be sharp enough to clear that steep house advantage.
Alabama is a clear favorite at 56%. Still plenty of room for another contender to sneak through. The “field” has a slightly better chance according to market numbers. The six teams below Alabama add up to 60%.
If you’re wondering about Ole Miss, the Rebels are in the general range of 60/1 or 70/1. Better than a 1% chance, but a distant longshot.
Update: We want to follow up on a comment we made last week. We noted that those betting college football Regular Season Win totals would essentially “take a loss” on games canceled by weather. While that’s true at the South Point in Las Vegas, where VSiN is based, it’s NOT true at other sites. Many cancel the bet outright and offer a refund to customers. That can be frustrating for bettors already well-positioned to cash their ticket. Be sure to familiarize yourself with the rules and policies wherever you place sports bets.
Best of luck to all of you who are already placing legal sports bets in the newest state to join the fun. VSiN will be back with you Saturday to talk more football.
This story was originally published August 2, 2018 at 4:00 AM.