It’s not crazy to bet on a preseason game, so long as you follow the playbook

Each year at this time, a common perception needs to be shot down. It’s the idea that only the insane — the types who wear costumes to pro wrestling events, instigate road rage incidents or linger near dark alleys while drinking out of a brown paper bag — will wager on NFL preseason games.

“It’s not crazy,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, a Las Vegas oddsmaker since the 1970s. “People always bet it because they can’t wait for football season. It’s the shining beacon at the end of the road.”

On one of the last quiet Sunday afternoons, Vaccaro relaxed in his office at the South Point, ignored the baseball games on several screens and said, “When the (expletive) does football start?”

Football futures betting has been happening for months, but the cashing season starts Thursday, when the Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears raise the curtain in the Hall of Fame Game at Canton, Ohio. There is a line (Ravens -2½) and total (33) and it’s OK to place a wager, but act responsibly and do it in moderation.

There is a playbook of do’s and don’ts to follow when playing the preseason.

Do pay close attention to coaches and what they say. Read as much as possible and watch online interview clips. Some coaches play poker, but others will be transparent and reveal more game-plan information. Some play to win more than others.

“My main philosophy is isolating coaches who play the preseason to win and those who don’t, particularly on dress rehearsal week,” said Playbook.com handicapper Marc Lawrence, who has compiled multiple pages of point-spread trend information on coaches and teams.

The best bet-on coaches from preseasons past are Seattle’s Pete Carroll (32-17 straight up, 34-14-1 against the spread), Baltimore’s John Harbaugh (28-12 SU, 27-13 ATS) and Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer (14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS).

Another angle involves new coaches who might be motivated to start well and establish a winning mentality. Jon Gruden, in his second tour of duty in Oakland, is one of seven new coaches along with Arizona’s Steve Wilks, Chicago’s Matt Nagy, Detroit’s Matt Patricia, Indianapolis’ Frank Reich, Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel and the Giants’ Pat Shurmur.

“If a coach wants to win, they’ll win,” Westgate sports book manager Ed Salmons said. “You try to get a feel for the new coaches.”

Do evaluate and research quarterback rotations. Coaches and quarterbacks are the most important characters in the preseason, but for different reasons than in the regular season. Forget what you know about the starting quarterbacks, because even the stars like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger don’t matter much in August, when most games are won by the second- and third-string passers.

The Ravens’ backup quarterback situation is competitive and encouraging, with veteran Robert Griffin III out to prove he still belongs in the league while explosive rookie Lamar Jackson will get plenty of opportunities to make plays. The Bears’ backup quarterbacks — Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray — are underrated veterans who are more than capable leading scoring drives.

Some of the strongest backup QB situations in the preseason figure to exist with Arizona (Josh Rosen and Mike Glennon), Cleveland (Baker Mayfield and Drew Stanton), Dallas (Cooper Rush and Mike White), Denver (Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly), the New York Jets (Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold) and Oakland (Connor Cook and EJ Manuel).

There are plenty of other interesting backup battles to watch. Green Bay’s competition between Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer could go either way, meaning both play well or it turns into a train wreck. The same could be said of the Los Angeles Chargers’ duel between Geno Smith and Cardale Jones.

Don’t expect bad teams with below-average quarterbacks — Buffalo, for example, with AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen — to do good things just because the opponents could be disinterested in the preseason.

Do expect the elite teams to play to win in Week 3, when the games get more realistic. New England coach Bill Belichick’s record in August (50-43 SU, 44-42-7 ATS) is solid, but the Patriots and all other teams put the most emphasis on the so-called dress rehearsal week.

Don’t parlay three or more games in Weeks 1 and 4, when the starters see fewer snaps and your bets are similar to the spin of a roulette wheel. As Vaccaro said, “You’re guessing.”

Do follow line moves — some numbers will move as much as three to five points based on smart money, insightful information and steam chasers — but don’t bet the worst numbers if you arrive late to the party. Do not obsess as much about 3-point lines, because that number is not as key in the preseason when coaches try to avoid overtime.

Do approach preseason wagering mainly for entertainment purposes, but don’t think it’s an impossible mission to win. Bookmakers are tapping the brakes for a reason. The limits at a majority of sports books

“The biggest protection is the limits you take,” Vaccaro said. “The smart guys are not playing as much. Most of that (inside info) is gone.”

As with all other pursuits in life, the key to success is to do the research, reduce the luck factor by being selective and try to make smarter decisions. Don’t get swept up in the insanity and there will be no need to see a psychiatrist because you’re betting the NFL preseason.

NFL preseason quarterback rotations

• ARIZONA - Sam Bradford, Josh Rosen, Mike Glennon, Chad Kanoff
  
  
• ATLANTA - Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Garrett Grayson, Kurt Benkert
  
  
• BALTIMORE - Joe Flacco, Robert Griffin III, Lamar Jackson, Josh Woodrum
  
  
• BUFFALO - AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman, Josh Allen
  
  
• CAROLINA - Cam Newton, Garrett Gilbert, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen
  
  
• CHICAGO - Mitchell Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray
  
  
• CINCINNATI - Andy Dalton, Matt Barkley, Jeff Driskel, Logan Woodside
  
  
• CLEVELAND - Tyrod Taylor, Baker Mayfield, Drew Stanton, Brogan Roback
  
  
• DALLAS - Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Mike White, Dalton Sturm
  
  
• DENVER - Case Keenum, Paxton Lynch, Chad Kelly
  
  
• DETROIT - Matthew Stafford, Matt Cassel, Jake Rudock
  
  
• GREEN BAY - Aaron Rodgers, Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle
  
  
• HOUSTON - Deshaun Watson, Brandon Weeden, Stephen Morris, Joe Webb
  
  
• INDIANAPOLIS - Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Brad Kaaya, Phillip Walker
  
  
• JACKSONVILLE - Blake Bortles, Cody Kessler, Tanner Lee
  
  
• KANSAS CITY - Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Matt McGloin, Chase Litton
  
  
• L.A. CHARGERS - Philip Rivers, Geno Smith, Cardale Jones, Nic Shimonek
  
  
• L.A. RAMS - Jared Goff, Sean Mannion, Brandon Allen, Luis Perez
  
  
• MIAMI - Ryan Tannehill, Brock Osweiler, David Fales, Bryce Petty
  
  
• MINNESOTA - Kirk Cousins, Trevor Siemian, Kyle Sloter, Peter Pujals
  
  
• NEW ENGLAND - Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Danny Etling
  
  
• NEW ORLEANS - Drew Brees, Tom Savage, Taysom Hill, J.T. Barrett
  
  
• N.Y. GIANTS - Eli Manning, Davis Webb, Kyle Lauletta, Alex Tanney
  
  
• N.Y. JETS - Josh McCown, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold
  
  
• OAKLAND - Derek Carr, Connor Cook, EJ Manuel
  
  
• PHILADELPHIA - Nick Foles, Carson Wentz, Nate Sudfeld, Joe Callahan
  
  
• PITTSBURGH - Ben Roethlisberger, Landry Jones, Mason Rudolph, Josh Dobbs
  
  
• SAN FRANCISCO - Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens, Jack Heneghan
  
  
• SEATTLE - Russell Wilson, Austin Davis, Alex McGough
  
  
• TAMPA BAY - Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, Ryan Griffin, Austin Allen
  
  
• TENNESSEE - Marcus Mariota, Blaine Gabbert, Luke Falk
  
  
• WASHINGTON - Alex Smith, Colt McCoy, Kevin Hogan
  
  

This story was originally published August 2, 2018 at 4:00 AM.