Letters to the Editor

WILLIAM D. BLAKESLEE: How can we predict climate change?

Have you ever seen the five-day "cone of uncertainty" used in predicting hurricane tracks?

According to NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), "Uncertainty exists in every forecast." At the end of the five-day period (i.e., the widest spread of predicted possible paths), the hurricane models are wrong 30-40 percent of the time (see www.nhc.noaa.gov).

Despite all the modern technology regarding hurricanes (e.g., hurricane hunters aircraft, sensing buoys, satellites, radar, 100-plus years of studying actual hurricanes), NOAA freely admits it is unable to state as "fact" what will happen in only five days.

The "climate change" alarmists state it is "fact" that climate change is dooming humanity to extinction and is the result of human activity.

On what is such purported "fact" based? It's based on estimation models of what might happen not in five days, five weeks, five months or even five years but 50 or 100 years in the future. Never mind how these models have proved notoriously inaccurate thus far; never mind how huge the "cone of uncertainty" will be 50 or 100 years from now; and never mind the total lack of any real-life experiences to develop these models, "climate change" alarmists still consider their beliefs to be indisputable "fact."

Dr. Richard Lindzen, professor emeritus of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, describes the climate scare hoax as "irrational nonsense." Fact? Hardly.

P.T. Barnum would be amused.