What will 2026 hurricane season bring for South MS? Forecasters have an answer
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- CSU predicts a somewhat below‑normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season overall activity.
- El Niño development should raise vertical wind shear, reducing major hurricane odds.
- Officials warn one landfalling hurricane can still make the season destructive.
A moderate-to-strong El Niño expected during the height of hurricane season could be good news for the continental U.S. coastline and Caribbean, scientists at Colorado State University predict in their highly anticipated first annual forecast.
“We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below normal activity,” the forecast says. “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.”
The forecast also predicts the number of hurricanes to expect, listed below, followed by the average number from 1991-2020:
- Named storms: 13, average 14.4
- Hurricanes: 6, average 7.2
- Major hurricanes: 2, average 3.2
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, peaking Sept. 10, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center.
El Niño is expected to increase vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, reducing the chances for powerful hurricanes to form.
However, the CSU forecast came with a warning: “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
Forecasters also said sea-surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, but slightly cooker in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
