Tropical system in Atlantic expected to strengthen, but where will it go?

A new tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the Atlantic by the end of the week or over the weekend, and although it’s too soon to know where it could end up, the system is still about a week away from land.

As of 8 a.m. Thursday, the National Hurricane Center raised the probability of formation once again, to a 50% chance of development in the next two days and an 80% chance in the next seven days.

If the system does form, it would be named Gabrielle.

Forecasters said the tropical wave is expected to enter a pocket of more storm-friendly conditions — like warmer water and less destructive winds — in the next few days that will give it a chance to strengthen.

Most of the long-range computer models, also known as spaghetti models, show the system moving due west and approaching the eastern Caribbean islands by mid-next week. The hurricane center has warned residents there to keep an eye on the system and will issue watches and warnings if its path looks more definite.

But without a defined center within the tropical wave’s swirl, models have a harder time predicting where the would-be storm might go.

For now, most of them show a curve to the north, similar to the paths Hurricane Erin and Tropical Storm Fernand took. Some of those models make the curve tighter, bringing Bermuda into the path, and others give the storm a broader turn, potentially scraping as far as Puerto Rico.

“Guidance is still up in the air as to its impacts to the islands or if it misses north,” the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore posted on X on Thursday morning. “It depends on how far south, strength and what the steering is next week and all those things are unclear at this time.”