Why the ‘unusual’ calm in heart of hurricane season? What South MS should know

The Atlantic Ocean is calm.

That’s unusual, forecasters said this month, as hurricane season nears what is normally its busiest time of year. The National Hurricane Center is tracking two disturbances, but neither are expected to impact the United States anytime soon. And this season, according to hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University, is on track to be just the second year since 1950 that no named storms have formed in the usually nerve-wracking weeks between the end of August and middle of September.

“This pronounced quiet period,” the researchers wrote, “is quite remarkable.”

The risk could return later this month. Forecasters expect strong winds that have been stifling storms will weaken, which could open the path for tropical storms or hurricanes to form in several weeks. Dry northern air that had been sweeping across the tropics will also disappear.

Michael Lowry, a Florida meteorologist, said in a newsletter last week that residents across the Gulf Coast could expect “increasingly conducive conditions ahead to round out September.”

“Don’t expect the back part of the month to be as forgiving as these unusually quiet first few weeks,” he said.

What’s behind the quiet start?

Meteorologists at Colorado State attributed the lull to dry air across the Atlantic, strong winds that have disrupted forming storms and less rain and moisture over Africa, where tropical waves often start.

Circulation patterns in the atmosphere have also been turning storms north before they near the U.S., Lowry said.

Still, forecasters are cautioning against complacency. The 2024 hurricane season was backloaded with storms after a period of calm.

“So while we should enjoy the peak-season drought,” Lowry said, “we also shouldn’t assume it’ll stick around.”