Flood watch already on for MS Coast. What can we expect from tropical system?

A tropical disturbance is forecast to rumble into the Gulf on Wednesday with drenching rain that could transform roads into rivers and soak South Mississippi and Louisiana.

Forecasters issued a flood watch across the Mississippi Coast through Friday and said the deluge could swamp rivers, streams and low-lying areas. The National Weather Service predicted 3 to 5 inches would fall south of Interstate 10 between Wednesday and Saturday and said some spots could get up to 10 inches in a worst-case scenario.

Still, the National Hurricane Center on Wednesday warned the biggest threat was rain and said there was only a 40 percent chance the system would become a tropical depression. Forecasters also urged caution.

“We’re not forecasting widespread flash flooding, but there’s the potential for localized very heavy rainfall,” said Danielle Manning, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Slidell. “Some places are going to see what feels like normal summer thunderstorms. Some places are going to see much heavier rainfall. We just don’t know where those specific places are.”

National Hurricane Center forecasters said the disturbance was moving west on Wednesday morning across Florida, between Tallahassee and Panama City. It is expected to reach the Louisiana coast by Thursday.

There is still uncertainty. The National Weather Service said a tropical depression “cannot be ruled out,” especially if the system stays offshore over warm Gulf water. But Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore wrote on social media Wednesday morning that the disturbance “is weak and disorganized.”

Rain from the system could start falling in Mississippi on Wednesday, but the heaviest downpours are expected on Thursday and Friday, Manning said.

To prepare, she added, residents should plan routes away from low-lying roads and underpasses and clear yards in flood-prone areas.

This story was originally published July 16, 2025 at 9:01 AM.