Tropical depression could soon form in Gulf. What are the risks for South MS?

A disturbance thundering across Florida will reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday, forecasters said, drenching South Mississippi with rain that could lead to flash flooding.

The system was east of Florida on Tuesday morning, and forecasters said its main threat will be downpours. But the National Hurricane Center said its chance of formation was growing: Forecasters on Tuesday gave the disturbance a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by Thursday.

The National Weather Service in Slidell also heightened its forecast: The agency said the risk of excessive rain had increased for Friday. Rain could start Wednesday afternoon and drop anywhere from 3 to 6 inches across parts of the Mississippi Coast.

Forecasters predicted a slight risk of flash flooding on the Mississippi Coast and said pooling water was more likely in urban areas.

Michael Lowry, a meteorologist in Florida, said in a Tuesday morning newsletter that models were still showing “tepid” odds of development.

If the disturbance stays south of the coast over warm Gulf waters, he added, “it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the system gain enough organization tomorrow and Thursday to become a tropical depression or borderline tropical storm.”

This story was originally published July 15, 2025 at 8:44 AM.