Mississippi is nearing peak of severe weather season. When will Coast’s tornado risk end?

The storms strike every spring.

Already this year, a swarm of tornadoes killed seven people over two days across southwest Mississippi. Another round of thunder and flooding doused the Coast this weekend. And forecasters this week are warning residents from Jackson to the Delta that more risks are coming.

The state is nearing the height of severe weather season.

The threat usually endures from March through May because warm and cold temperatures in spring clash and create thunderstorms.

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center wrote Monday that “very large hail, significant tornadoes and damaging winds all appear likely” across the mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and Thursday. Meteorologists said cities from Jackson to Greenwood could get 70 mph winds and golf ball-sized hail.

And in South Mississippi, 10 inches of rain in Jackson County on Sunday sent rescuers scrambling by boat to save two people swept off a four-wheeler they were riding through a flooded road in Hurley. Jackson County Emergency Manager Earl Etheridge said a tornado damaged six mobile homes off Fox Ridge Drive and Schoolland Road in Vancleave. The impacts appeared minor.

When will tornado risk end?

The forecast through May is not yet clear. A slightly warmer winter this year spurred storms earlier in the season, said Latrice Maxie, a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Jackson. Forecasters there have recorded 40 tornadoes across the state this year.

But the warm weather pattern, called La Nina, is now weakening. That could mean fewer storms. “Right now,” Maxie said, “we’re anticipating a normal rest of the spring.”

Still, it is almost impossible to predict the weather so far in advance.

Tornadoes on the Coast are most common in April and May, according to a Mississippi State database. But “there’s never a month that we have zero chance to get severe weather,” said Mike Efferson, a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Slidell. One example: a tornado hit Moss Point two years ago in June. Severe weather sometimes also hits in November.

Tornadoes are less common across the Coast than in central Mississippi. But the state is also still rallying after 18 tornadoes struck southwest Mississippi over two days in March and damaged 941 homes.

Stephen McCraney, the executive director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, said on social media that the state is still in the process of applying for federal assistance after those tornadoes.

“We will get through this together,” he said.