Hurricane Rafael becomes Category 3 in the Caribbean. See the latest forecast for South MS

Hurricane Rafael surged toward Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 3 storm. But it will soon weaken in the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters say, and could break apart or not reach the United States at all.

The forecast past three days is still uncertain.

Rafael strengthened to a Category 3 storm after noon on Wednesday. It has 115 mph winds and will strike Cuba as a “major hurricane,” the National Hurricane Center said.

It will enter the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night. In the Gulf, Rafael will turn west and northwest and weaken when dry air, strong winds in the atmosphere and cooler water temperatures stifle its strength. The National Hurricane Center keeps shifting Rafael’s track west and away from South Mississippi.

“There is a good chance it will be sheared apart before impacting any part of the U.S. coast,” Alabama meteorologist James Spann said on social media Wednesday morning.

Risk is declining for Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama -- which forecasters had earlier predicted could get doused with rain. Forecasters have spent much of the week debating two storm tracks: one that showed landfall in Mississippi or Alabama, and another that tracked west, closer to Mexico. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track keeps shifting to the latter.

Possible impacts on the Mississippi Coast include higher rain chances, minor coastal flooding and high winds and seas Saturday through Monday, according to the National Weather Service in Slidell.

The storm has already forced one event to reschedule in South Mississippi: Gulfport announced it would push the annual Gumbo Fest to January, instead of this weekend.

This story was originally published November 6, 2024 at 7:55 AM.