Hurricane Rafael forms in the Caribbean Sea. What to know in South Mississippi

Hurricane Rafael formed in the Caribbean Sea Tuesday evening with surging winds that forecasters say will soon weaken, turning the system into only a rainstorm this weekend if it reaches the United States at all.

The storm was spinning closer to the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, with 75 mph winds that make it a Category 1 hurricane. It is forecast to reach Cuba on Wednesday as a Category 2 storm, and the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Its path beyond that is unclear.

The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday night it was increasingly likely that Rafael would shift northwest and away from South Mississippi. But the agency still warned it was too early to know how the storm could impact the Gulf Coast.

Forecasters have spent much of this week debating two storm tracks that show vastly different landfalls. One track shows Rafael could move into the western Gulf toward Mexico. Another says it could turn north toward Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast lies in the middle: It shows Rafael would slow down in the Gulf and near Louisiana late Sunday.

“There’s a chance this thing might just fizzle out completely by the time it reaches the U.S. Coast, if it reaches the U.S. Coast,” James Spann, an Alabama meteorologist, said in a recorded Tuesday morning briefing. “There is a huge spread in models.”

What does Rafael mean for South MS?

The National Hurricane Center asked Gulf Coast residents to watch the forecast.

Rafael is strengthening for now, fueled by a warm Caribbean Sea, and low winds in the atmosphere. The National Hurricane Center said it could rapidly intensify through Wednesday.

Cooler water and strong atmospheric winds in the Gulf of Mexico will tear at Rafael’s strength later this week.

Rafael will be “a rainmaker,” wherever it nears land in the Gulf, Spann said in the briefing. “This will not be anything especially dangerous.”

Confidence in the forecast five days out is so low that meteorologists are uncertain whether rain will douse the South at all. The National Hurricane Center said the forecast will become clearer in the next few days.

But the storm has already forced one event to reschedule in South Mississippi: Gulfport announced it would push the annual Gumbo Fest to January, instead of this weekend.

This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 8:30 AM.