Tropical Storm Rafael forms in the Caribbean as forecasters urge South MS to watch system

Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday in the Caribbean Sea and could strengthen into a hurricane before it enters the Gulf of Mexico this week.

Rafael was 175 miles south of Jamaica Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm moved slightly right of its previous track, and is expected to turn northwest later on Monday.

Forecasters said it will reach the Cayman Islands Tuesday evening, likely as a Category 1 hurricane. It could strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Will Rafael impact the MS Coast?

The National Hurricane Center said Monday afternoon it was “too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast.”

Any impacts would come Friday or Saturday, according to current forecasts. But Rafael’s path is largely unclear through the Gulf, where it will face cooler waters, wind shear from the southwest and dry air that will probably weaken it, forecasters said.

The National Hurricane Center is asking residents across the Gulf Coast, including Mississippi, to watch the forecast.

The best scenario could be a rainy weekend in the South, which is suffering drought, said James Spann, an Alabama meteorologist.

“That is just one possibility,” Spann wrote on social media. It is also possible the storm could stay “hundreds of miles to the south with no impact here,” he said. “We will have much better clarity in 24-36 hours.”

Rafael is the 17th named storm this season in the Atlantic. It is also unusual: Only four November hurricanes have reached the Gulf of Mexico since forecasters began tracking them in 1966, according to Michael Lowry, a meteorologist in Florida.

This story was originally published November 4, 2024 at 8:32 AM.