Why the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on new tropical wave in the Atlantic
The Gulf Coast region should keep an eye on a tropical wave expected to strengthen over the next week as it moves closer toward the warm Gulf of Mexico, weather experts say.
The storm system is in the Atlantic and will likely strengthen into a tropical depression later this week as it moves into the Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center said at 10 a.m. Tuesday.
The wave is east of the Windward Islands and is moving west-northwest at 15-20 mph.
The NHC said late Tuesday that the system has a 80% chance of formation in the next five days.
Beyond that time period is hard to predict, but two long range models show a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico late next week.
Retired meteorologist Rocco Calaci tracks Gulf Coast weather and posts updates on his Facebook page. He’s been a trusted and steady hurricane forecaster for decades and is high on the list for weather geeks and storm tracking.
In his latest newsletter, Calaci says the GFS and ECMWF models both show a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Sept. 30.
“Please remember that the models are going to change over the next several days, so don’t fixate on the projected tracks right now. I think the entire State of Florida and the Gulf Coast need to pay attention,” Calaci said.
WLOX-TV Meteorologist Eric Jeansonne is also tracking the storm system.
“While many long range models indicate a system in the Gulf 7-10 days from now, it is still too early to say anything with certainty regarding specific details like exact track, intensity, who could see impacts and what those impacts could be,” he said Tuesday.
Hurricane season started historically slow this year but the tropics are heating up in September. Hurricane Fiona slammed Puerto Rico on Monday and is expected to move over Turks and Caicos Tuesday.
Now a Category 2, Fiona is expected to strengthen into a Category 3 or 4 hurricane after it was passes Turks and Caicos and Bermuda, according to the National Weather Service.
The Mississippi Coast has not been threatened by a tropical system so far this season.
This story was originally published September 20, 2022 at 10:43 AM.
