Tropical depression could form in southern Gulf this week, Hurricane Center says
An area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche now has a 50% of developing into a tropical system, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday.
“Slow development is possible over the next several days while the broad disturbance moves little, and a tropical depression could form in this area late in the week,” the NHC’s Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook said.
On Sunday, the large area of low pressure was bringing “disorganized cloudiness and showers” over the Bay of Campeche. It was forecast to bring heavy rain to Central America and Southern Mexico over the next several days.
It’s not clear yet if the system will move north across the Gulf of Mexico, remain near the Bay of Campeche or cross into the Pacific Ocean.
“If disturbance 92L does develop into a tropical depression or storm, some models indicate it could move into the northern Gulf of Mexico by next weekend,” Harrison County Emergency Management Agency Director Matt Stratton said in an email.
If it does, the main impact will most likely be excessive rainfall over Father’s Day weekend, he said.
“However, there is significant uncertainty to this system’s development, timing, and movement.”
The National Weather Service in New Orleans said Sunday that likely the biggest factor affecting the possible tropical system is an area of high pressure that’s expected to form from the Lower Mississippi River Valley to Mexico, which would allow the system to drift north.
“This system looks like it will be messy, and there is a good chance that the heavy rain could be well displaced from the center but given what appears to be a slow-moving system rainfall looks like it could be a considerable concern,” the NWS Area Forecast Discussion said Sunday.
