Tropical Storm Delta could threaten Gulf Coast as a Category 2 hurricane, NHC says
Editor’s note: Find the latest Tuesday forecast here.
Tropical Storm Delta could reach Category 3 strength before weakening to a Category 2 at landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center said in its 4 p.m. Monday update.
However, there is “still significant uncertainty” in the intensity forecast as well as its track and timing.
The system strengthened into a tropical storm by Monday morning, and showed signs of continued strengthening throughout the day. Conditions are favorable for “rapid strengthening” over the next 36 hours, and Delta is expected to hit the Yucatan Peninsula as a major hurricane Tuesday night or Wednesday.
The Mississippi Coast is in the “cone of uncertainty” for now, and the NHC said there uncertainty in Delta’s track, intensity and timing forecast because landfall is still four to five days away.
“While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle,” the NHC warned.
Delta is expected to to move west-northwest over the next couple of days, then turn north or northwest around Thursday.
Once it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico, the NHC said increasing wind shear and cooler waters “are likely to result in some reduction in wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf Coast.”
The maximum wind forecast is 120 mph, which would make it a Category 3 storm over the Gulf of Mexico, weakening to a Category 2 with 100 mph winds closer to landfall.
“Although there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta’s intensity when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge threat,” the NHC said.
The Mississippi Gulf Coast was mostly spared from hurricanes Laura and Sally, which made landfall in Louisiana and Alabama, respectively. Residents should monitor the updated track information for Delta and have their hurricane plans ready, the NHC said.
Forecast
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tuesday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Thursday
A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 77. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Windy, with a southwest wind 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 82. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 66. South wind around 5 mph.
This story was originally published October 5, 2020 at 8:28 AM.
