What happens when Gonzalo meets a Saharan dust cloud? The MS Coast could soon find out
Tropical Depression 8 is expected to bring rain and possible coastal flooding to South Mississippi as it heads for landfall in Texas — and behind it is Tropical Storm Gonzalo.
The Coast is forecast to get 2-3 inches of rain from Thursday through early Saturday morning, according to the National Weather Service in New Orleans. The depression will be named Tropical Storm Hanna if winds strengthen before landfall.
Higher-than-normal tides could produce coastal flooding in South Mississippi, especially in areas that typically are flooded during times of onshore winds.
Gonzalo is still about 1,000 miles out in the Atlantic Ocean, and forecasters are unsure of what to expect from the seventh named storm of the season.
The current track puts Gonzalo south of Jamaica on Tuesday morning, heading northwest.
Beyond that, the computer models differ.
“There is still an incredible amount of uncertainty in Gonzalo’s intensity forecast,” the National Hurricane Center reports.
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency Director Greg Michel said at a Thursday press conference that Gonzalo could be the first hurricane this year to enter the Gulf of Mexico.
It’s expected to move into the Caribbean Sea around Monday, but as a small and compact system, Michel said it’s more susceptible to environmental conditions and could quickly strengthen or dissipate.
“Small cyclones like Gonzalo tend to succumb to any type of adverse environmental conditions quite easily, and it’s possible that the system could struggle during the next couple of days, the Hurricane Center said.
The storm’s structure has become “a little disheveled” since Wednesday and has lost some organization, the NHC said. The storm is encountering dry air in the atmosphere and dust plumes from the Sahara Desert that have suppressed tropical development since late June.
Mississippians also need to be prepared to not rely on hurricane shelters because of the coronavirus pandemic. Shelter operations will be “extremely limited, more so this season than in seasons past,” Michel said. Residents should work now to secure a place to evacuate, such as a home of a friend or family member.
Hurricane watches are in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
South Mississippi got its first tropical system on the first week of the 2020 season. Tropical Storm Cristobal caused high storm surge and millions of dollars in damages to homes, businesses and piers.
This story was originally published July 23, 2020 at 1:59 PM.
