As threat of heavy rainfall grows, fewer Mississippians covered by flood insurance
El Niño is expected to bring increased rainfall to the Mississippi Coast this year, leaving residents particularly vulnerable to severe flooding.
In June, floodwaters from Tropical Storm Arthur devastated parts of the southeastern United States, damaging nearly 500 homes in Mississippi alone. With fewer than 4% of the state’s homeowners covered by flood insurance, most residents are paying for damages out-of-pocket.
Nonprofits are working to help repair homes across the state, but some residents expressed uncertainty about full community recovery.
Heavier rainfall expected
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a below-normal hurricane season for 2026, but United Cajun Navy chief meteorologist Amy Metz said residents should still prepare for severe flooding.
“The Pacific moisture will trail across and likely cause more flooding than usual, even though we probably won’t have as many major hurricanes in the Gulf and Atlantic,” Metz said.
Weather conditions brought on by El Niño allow for larger raindrops to form, meaning increased precipitation and flash flooding in southern states.
“Tropical moisture makes a lot more rain,” Metz said. “We actually have an above average rainfall forecast, even though it is going to be less likely to have the wind events with a hurricane.”
Mississippi has the fifth-highest floodplain acreage in the nation, creating ideal conditions for widespread flooding. Metz said the state absorbs massive amounts of rainfall from other states because of its geographic makeup.
“It doesn’t have to be raining overhead to cause flooding there,” Metz said. “When the water does come, it’s going to spread out really far.”
Flood insurance policies fall short
Despite the heightened flood risk, Mississippi Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney said there are fewer than 50,000 active federal flood insurance policies in the state, a decrease of more than 30% since 2015.
Chaney attributed the decrease to homeowners finding private coverage or dropping their flood insurance policies entirely.
Statistics are available only for the federally run National Flood Insurance Program, where most policyholders secure coverage.
“People statewide have dropped their flood coverage, and some of these people have dropped the NFIP because of the rate increases,” he said.
A lack of statewide insurance education contributes to misunderstandings about coverage, Chaney said. Standard homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage, and residents with mortgages are legally required to buy flood insurance for homes in flood zones.
According to Chaney, Mississippi is one of three states with a private market that competes with National Flood Insurance Program pricing, giving residents more options. However, with Mississippi maintaining one of the highest poverty rates in the nation, many residents are priced out of coverage.
The average annual flood insurance cost is more than $1,150 statewide, with Harrison County seeing some of the highest premiums on the Coast.
If localities don’t enforce building codes based on elevation, Chaney said, rebuilding after severe weather will become increasingly difficult.
“The codes say that you cannot build below an elevation determined by the federal government,” he said. “If you build below that, it’s going to be hard to find flood insurance, either private or NFIP.”
Moreover, Chaney said that residents who live outside federally designated floodplains tend to opt out of flood insurance.
“You don’t anticipate flash floods like you had in Stone County, and a lot of those properties were not in a floodplain,” he said.
Rebuilding after Arthur
The remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur brought severe flash flooding to Stone County last month, with floodwaters rising up to 7 feet in less than an hour.
“I didn’t get the sense that people really thought that they could see that much flash flooding to that extent in the area they were in,” said Brian Trascher, United Cajun Navy vice president.
Retired Stone County sheriff’s deputy Phyllis Olds lives along Red Creek in Perkinston. She’s experienced severe floods before, but she said rising insurance premiums keep her from buying flood insurance.
“I could probably do it and not eat or not buy medication,” Olds said. “The only people that can pay for something like that are people that have a lot of money.”
Olds is one of many Stone County residents who suffered uninsured damages after Arthur.
Brandy Hayden, president of Just the Crumbs Disaster Ministry, helped clean out dozens of homes after the storm. None of the families he assisted carried flood insurance, he said, leaving homeowners and community relief groups to shoulder the cost of rebuilding.
“It’s going to all be out of pocket or donated from other people,” Hayden said. “I mean, these people are not wealthy, and this is going to put a strain on them financially.”
Still, residents and volunteers remain hopeful about relief efforts.
“We’re gonna pull together as a community and get this done because we’re all in the same boat. Whether rich or poor, when something like this happens, it puts everybody on the same playing field,” Hayden said.
Trascher said: “Lean on your neighbor and your community. Keep researching resources that may be coming out from either the nonprofit world or from the government, because every time a community gets hit, eventually they bounce back.”
