Projected coronavirus death toll cut by more than half in Mississippi, model shows
Mississippi hasn’t yet seen the worst of the coronavirus outbreak, but new predictions by University of Washington researchers project far fewer deaths from the illness than originally anticipated.
The updated projections, published by the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Sunday, now show only about 240 people in Mississippi will die from the COVID-19 virus over the next few months, a more than 50 percent decrease from the 918 deaths estimated late last week.
On April 1, the virus was projected to kill nearly 1,100 people in Mississippi by Aug. 4, local station FOX 13 reported, citing the same projection model.
The new predictions not only suggest a nosedive in the number of coronavirus-related deaths, but indicated great progress in how equipped hospitals across the Magnolia State will be once the virus is expected to peak on April 18. University of Washington researchers now believe Mississippi will have enough regular hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds to handle the influx of COVID-19 patients. Last week, they predicted the state would see a shortage of both , showing a need for 600 ICU beds, specifically.
According to the latest data, ventilators will still be in short supply by mid-April.The need for resources will fall gradually with forecasts showing by late May, there will be no shortage of hospital beds, including ICU beds, or ventilators.
The new IHME predictions come just a few days after Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves issued a state-wide shelter in place order is response to the virus, which has killed over 50 Mississippians as of April 6. Data from the Mississippi State Department of Health shows there are currently more than 1,700 COVID-19 confirmed cases across the state.
Reeves’ order went into effect Friday.
Dr. Clay Hays, who heads the state’s medical association, told local station WLBT he believes the grim forecast model played a part in prompting the governor to take more aggressive efforts at keeping residents apart in hopes of slowing the spread of the disease.
“We needed to send a strong and clear message to the public that they needed to take this seriously,” Hays told the station last week. “Social distancing, it sounds like of funny or blase. This is a real deal.”
The university’s updated projections reflect efforts by state leaders like Reeves and others across the U.S. who have put policies in place to restrict large social gatherings. Many cities have also ordered the closures of bars, restaurants, parks, salons and other nonessential businesses amid the outbreak.
Researchers now say they have a better understanding of what’s to come, thanks to “substantial improvements” in the data used to create their COVID-19 forecast model. While national statistics for the total number of coronavirus-related deaths remain largely unchanged, updated models show significant changes across several states due, in large part, to social distancing efforts.
Should Mississippianspractice responsible social distancing through May, the state should continue to see fewer deaths and reported cases of the virus, the latest IHME models suggest.
Hays told WLBT he feels optimistic about the coming months but urged people to take the virus seriously.
“These are numbers. People don’t think much about numbers, but you know what’s behind those numbers are people and families,” he added. “You’re going to know somebody that’s been infected with COVID-19.”