Citizenship question won’t be on 2020 census for now, but there’s still worry in Mississippi
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Thursday there will be no citizenship question on the 2020 census for now. Even so, Mississippi’s black and Hispanic/Latino populations could still be undercounted.
Census changes coupled with political discourse around immigration and the inclusion of a citizenship question could further compound the issue of under-representation of minority groups in the state, resulting in more than 39,000 being left off the census counts, according to an Urban Institute study.
Some political leaders feared the question would lead thousands of people not to participate in the census in Mississippi. Still, the possibility of reduced federal funding remains.
According to the George Washington University Institute of Public Policy, the census helped drive $10.1 billion in federal funding to Mississippi during 2016, about $3,385 per resident. The biggest portion of that money went to Medicaid, but funding for Section 8 housing vouchers and school breakfasts also was included.
Mississippi has far fewer non-citizens than bigger states. Out its 2.98 million residents, about 42,000 (1.4%) were reported as non-citizens in previous census surveys. That includes about 8,000 non-citizens in the three Coast counties.
Nationwide, about 22.3 million people, or 7% of the U.S. population, are not U.S. citizens, according to the latest census estimates, which cover the period between 2013 and 2017.
Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant and U.S. Rep. Steven Palazzo both favored a citizenship question on the census.
“I believe it’s critically important that a question about citizenship appear on the 2020 census to ensure that we have the most accurate and comprehensive data of our nation,” Bryant said. “We should want to see everyone counted. My administration has put plans in place to educate the public so that we can have maximum possible census participation of all people in Mississippi.”
Expert: Citizenship question would cut census participation
John J. Green, who heads the Center for Population Studies at the University of Mississippi, says he hadn’t heard a lot of discussion about the citizenship question when he’s talked to people about the census in community meetings across the state.
But he worried the inclusion of a citizenship question would cause census participation to fall.
“We know from research that one of the leading factors of why people don’t participate in the census is distrust,” he said.
He notes citizenship data are available in other census products other than the decennial census. “So we have the data to make informed decision making” whether the question is included or not.
If the question would have been approved, Green said “we are going to double up on the outreach we do” so people throughout the state understand the importance of an accurate census.
In Mississippi, estimates of those who could be undercounted in 2020 range from 12,500 to 39,100 people, according to a study conducted by the Urban Institute. Researchers under the worst-case scenario assumed that less than 60% of households would self-respond and some Hispanic/Latino residents and immigrants might choose not to respond because of the political discourse around immigration and the citizenship question.
The worst-case scenario estimate also takes into account operational changes to the 2020 census including the ability for Americans to complete the census online and fewer attempts to reach people who don’t respond, said Diana Elliott, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute.
Even with the citizenship question being struck down, fewer Hispanic/Latino residents are expected to respond, she said.
“Based on Census Bureau’s own research, we believe that whether or not the citizenship question is on the census form, that there will be a chill and a suppression of people who are immigrants and people who are Hispanic/Latino,” Elliott said. “It’s going to have more of an impact in some communities than others.”
Almost all of the state’s estimated uncounted population is black — peaking at 38,800 people under the worse census conditions, according to the Urban Institute.
“That’s pretty significant and noteworthy,” she said.
Hispanic/Latino populations could be undercounted by as much as 3,600. White populations are projected to be overcounted.
“Still, it’s very important,” she said.
The state’s youngest residents could be greatly affected as well. Children ages zero to 4 are at risk to be undercounted by about 9,300 to 12,400 people.
“That has a very real impact for their funding for the next 10 years,” she said. “Let’s say you have a 2-year-old who is missed. By the time the next census rolls around, they’re age 12. They are already well into their school years, and their community will have missed out on that funding.”
What’s next
The ruling sends the case back to a federal district court in New York for further consideration, but it leaves the Trump administration little time to make a new case for the citizenship question because the government must soon begin printing materials to carry out the decennial census.
Census Day, April 1, 2020, is a long way off, and things could change, Elliott said. Community engagement and outreach efforts to ensure people that the census keeps the data given to them confidential is key.
“It will take a lot of effort at the community level to communicate that and get people to realize how important it is to fill them out,” she said. “This can turn around. We can get more people to complete the census.”
Sun Herald Editor Blake Kaplan contributed to this report.
This story was originally published June 27, 2019 at 11:33 AM.