Iran war gives Pakistan its biggest diplomatic boost in decades

Throughout the nearly four-month Iran war, few countries were more visibly at the center of the efforts to end it than Pakistan, an unlikely actor thrust into the spotlight by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was the first to announce in a social-media post this week that the U.S. and Iran had struck a truce now known as the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding." Sharif's signature is on the document as mediator, alongside those of Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Sharif and Pakistani military chief Asim Munir emerged as central figures in the conflict's drama as they huddled with Tehran, hosted the peace talks in Islamabad and passed messages between Iranian and American negotiators via complex back channels.

That role brought Pakistan a level of political heft on the global stage it hasn't had in decades. It also helped pull the country out from the shadow of its larger, wealthier rival India, and potentially smoothed the way for greater foreign and business investment at a time when its war-shattered economy badly needs it.

"Pakistan went from having virtually no influence in the Middle East in early 2025 to being a diplomatic and military player of consequence in the region today," said Christopher Clary, associate professor of political science at the University at Albany and a former Defense Department official.

In the end, it was a last-minute intervention from Qatar that got the interim deal over the line, but even so, that doesn't change "this relative upgrade in Pakistani stature," said Clary.

Although there's uncertainty over whether the truce will hold, Pakistan already expects its peace-making role to deliver in several ways. For one, it helps cements Islamabad's influence not just with Washington, but with the Gulf states it partnered with during the talks, and with its longtime partner Beijing, all of whom have publicly praised Pakistan's actions.

Pakistan's closer ties with the U.S. have helped it in its rivalry with India. For years India has been the favored regional partner of Washington, but in drawing closer to Trump, Pakistan has also pushed India away - an effort only furthered by Pakistan's peace-broker role. Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have since made strides toward patching up ties, but Trump's closeness with Islamabad is likely to remain a thorn in the relationship.

"A Pakistan that can pick up the phone and call its partners in parallel - whether Tehran, Washington, Riyadh or Beijing - is a Pakistan that has created strategic flexibility and the means to generate momentum around high-value international initiatives," said Jay Truesdale, former chief of staff at the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad who is now CEO of the risk-intelligence firm TDI.

"Pakistan's leadership weighs its importance in the Iran-U.S. negotiations not only in absolute terms, but also relative to its rival India," he said.

Pakistan's path to being a central actor in the U.S.-Iran mediation began around a year ago, in the wake of its own four-day conflict with India. Trump rushed to claim credit for brokering the truce that ended that clash. India vehemently denied U.S. involvement, but Munir and Sharif embraced Trump's claim again and again - going as far as to back him for a Nobel Peace Prize. They were rewarded with a stream of praise from Trump and several meetings with the U.S. president, including at the White House.

Pakistan was quick to become a "founding member" of Trump's so-called Board of Peace, joining a mass signing ceremony in January at the World Economic Forum at Davos. At the event, Trump called out Munir personally, referring to him as "my favorite field marshal."

Trump is known for his unpredictability, and there is no guarantee the close ties will endure. At the same time, Pakistan may find in the end it has limited leverage over the countries involved in the Iran conflict, said Rick Rossow, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Nonetheless, the closer links were a reversal from even just a few years ago, when the country was all but isolated from Washington. Pakistan and the U.S. were partners during the Cold War and the early War on Terror years, but relations soured after a U.S. raid on a compound in Pakistan killed Osama bin Laden in 2011.

Ties remained strained for years, with President Joe Biden referring to Pakistan as "maybe one of the most dangerous nations in the world" over its nuclear program. The remarks were later walked back after a rebuke from Islamabad, but ties remained icy throughout his term.

The personal ties between the Trump administration and Pakistan, as well as Islamabad's working relationship with its neighbor Iran, made the country well placed to play a mediating role in the war, said Jauhar Saleem, a former Pakistani diplomat who is now president of the Institute of Regional Studies, an Islamabad think tank.

"The excellent personal rapport between the U.S. and Pakistan's leadership and between Pakistan and the Iranian leadership, as well as Pakistan's geostrategic significance for Iran, rendered Pakistan well-suited for the role," he said.

In the past year, the Trump administration has sought to steer new business investment to Pakistan in key areas including cryptocurrency, via a Trump-linked business, as well as in critical minerals. The investments remain largely confined to memoranda of understanding rather than inked contracts, though their backers have touted their value in the billions of dollars.

The investment is sorely needed. Pakistan has been grappling with slow growth and economic crises for years, and spending has been constrained by its $7 billion International Monetary Fund program. Its economy has been throttled by accelerating inflation from an energy shock triggered by the U.S.-Iran war.

Ultimately, though, Pakistan will need to turn its newfound diplomatic status with the U.S. into an enduring relationship to gain the maximum benefit, said Sheharyar Khan, executive director of the National Dialogue Forum, an Islamabad-based think tank.

"Trust will ultimately be shaped by sustained engagement and consistency rather than symbolic gestures or short-term diplomatic successes," he said. "Longer term engagement is necessary."

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