Analysis: Iran, Israel use Lebanon to test deterrence, negotiating power

BEIRUT, Lebanon, June 9 (UPI) -- Iran and Israel, who traded missile attacks triggered by a strike on Hezbollah's stronghold in the southern suburbs of Beirut, turned to Lebanon to test deterrence and new rules of engagement -- while seeking to take control of the tiny country's own U.S.- mediated negotiation track, according to analysts.

It was the first time that Iran stepped directly into the military conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.that broke out on Oct. 8, 2023.

Hezbollah and its supporters rejoiced when Iranian missiles fell on Israel, hours after an Israeli strike hit two apartments in Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday, killing two people identified as Hezbollah members and wounding 20 others, including women and children.

To Hezbollah, it was proof that Iran would never abandon it and would continue to protect it in any potential deal with Washington.

In fact, Iran's response was too little, too late: much of southern Lebanon had already been devastated, more than 1.2 million - mostly Shiites -- remain displaced, and Israeli forces have continued to advance and occupy additional territory. More than 3,600 people have been killed and 11,300 wounded since the escalation began in March.

The question is why Iran decided to act now after having left Gaza, Hezbollah and Lebanon to fend for themselves and face their own fate since 2023. Iran retaliated only when Israel attacked it in June 2025.

As Israel sought to impose new rules of engagement, threatening to strike the southern suburbs every time Hezbollah fired at northern Israel, Iran could not remain silent or stand idle.

"Iran intervened when the very mission and function of Hezbollah became at stake, that of no longer targeting Israel and threatening its security," Sami Nader, Middle Eastern affairs analyst and director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, told UPI.

Nader said that Hezbollah, which he described as "the jewel in the crown" for Iran, wanted to return to the rules of engagement that existed before it opened a support front for Gaza in October 2023, under which it had exercised the right of firing back at Israel.

Despite being greatly weakened by Israel during their nearly three-year war, Hezbollah has regained strength, firing missiles and drones and battling Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.

The group, armed and funded by Iran since its creation in the early 1980s, is engaged in another effort to force Lebanon to withdraw from direct negotiations with Israel in Washington under U.S. auspices -- a process that has recently produced a new cease-fire understanding.

Although it aims to achieve a full cease-fire, the new agreement calls for a complete halt to Hezbollah fire and the withdrawal of its fighters from the South Litani sector in southern Lebanon, while imposing no equivalent obligations on Israel,-leaving it with freedom of action.

It also referred to the creation of pilot zones to be placed under exclusive Lebanese Army control and to the disarmament of Hezbollah, without any clear mention of Israel's withdrawal, adding to the ambiguity of the agreement.

Iran and Hezbollah refused it, insisting that any deal between Iran and the United States include a cease-fire in Lebanon. Moreover, Tehran is seeking to impose a new equation that would prevent Israel from striking south Lebanon, not just Beirut's southern suburbs.

It remains to be seen whether Iran will be ready to engage Israel, which has stepped up its strikes and issued evacuation orders for additional areas in the southern region.

As the Washington agreement appears to be taking shape with the hope of securing Hezbollah's approval, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accused Iran of using Lebanon as "a bargaining chip" in its talks with the United States and refused to allow anyone to negotiate on behalf of his country.

While Iran seeks to keep the Lebanon track tied to its own, Aoun's decision to establish Lebanon as an independent track -- backed by Washington's sponsorship --is weakening the Iranian position, according to Nader.

"This is despite the fact that Iran is still holding its ground and, together with Hezbollah, remains capable of blocking the Lebanese government's disengagement efforts," he said.

However, it is difficult to disentangle Lebanon from decades-long Iranian influence given Hezbollah's allegiance to Tehran and its military arsenal.

Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former Army general who has been highly critical of Hezbollah for dragging the country into a destructive war with Israel, argued that Iran could still benefit Lebanon.

"This could be achieved by maintaining its refusal to sign an agreement with the United States if the war on Lebanon does not end," Jaber told UPI.

He noted that Lebanon's direct negotiations are "the shortest way" to end the conflict, while Hezbollah's arsenal remains "a strong card" in Iran's hands.

He said that without an agreement securing Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah would continue fighting and drag Israel into "a war of attrition that could last for years and exhaust both of them."

With the extensive destruction and heavy casualty toll inflicted by Israel, Lebanon -- already on the verge of collapse -- cannot withstand any form of prolonged war.

The dilemma, however, is that Hezbollah, Iran and Israel are all interested in keeping the conflict going, each for its own reasons, according to Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.

Khashan said that Hezbollah would cease to exist if its resistance came to an end, that Israel wants to maintain its occupation of southern Lebanon and push the Lebanese Army onto a "collision course" with Hezbollah to disarm it, and that Iran will not accept surrender to the United States.

"Iran created Hezbollah to fight on its behalf ... and it wants to keep the linkage between Iran and Lebanon," he told UPI. "But whatever Hezbollah thinks, Israel has the upper hand."

An agreement between Iran and the United States, and even the disarmament of Hezbollah, would not necessarily mean that Lebanon's problems are over.

"That won't end Hezbollah's phenomenon, way of thinking or ideology, which has recently evolved into a kind of closed-off cult," said Sam Menassa, a political analyst and former executive director of the La Maison du Futur research institute.

Menassa voiced fears of a settlement that would guarantee Israel's security, but pave the way for Hezbollah's integration into Lebanese political life and for Iran's control over Lebanon's political decision-making and economy.

While everything is still in play, he told UPI, Iran and its "axis of resistance" has lost the war but still retains the ability to "obstruct, sabotage, destabilize and act as victors."

Copyright 2026 UPI News Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

This story was originally published June 9, 2026 at 3:56 PM.