Biden, Trump policies could add trillions to debt. Report outlines the costliest ideas
President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden have vastly different policy plans — but a watchdog report released Wednesday estimates both could substantially add to the national debt.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan public policy organization, predicts under its “central estimate” that Trump’s plans would raise the debt by $4.95 trillion while Biden’s plans would increase the debt by $5.60 trillion over ten years.
The report includes three separate estimates — low, central and high — for both candidates as the “findings come with a large degree of uncertainty.”
Under a low-cost estimate for their agendas, Trump’s proposals are forecast to increase deficits by $700 billion, while Biden’s could reduce deficits by $150 billion. Under a high-cost estimate, Trump could increase deficits by $6.85 trillion, while Biden could increase them by $8.30 trillion.
This comes as the national debt was already growing rapidly before the COVID-19 crisis, the report says, and will continue to do so after the pandemic ends.
The report does not take into account coronavirus relief proposals and assumes policies are enacted immediately. It’s also based on the group’s “best understanding of the candidates’ proposals.” While the Biden campaign has outlined a “detailed agenda,” the Trump campaign’s agenda “contains very little detail,” the report says.
Here’s what the report found about Trump and Biden’s agendas and what they could cost or save based on the reports estimates.
Donald Trump
The Trump campaign hasn’t released a formal policy agenda, but instead “issued a set of bullet point principles and goals,” the report says. So the CRFB turned to his “budget proposals, speeches, and other policy proposals to determine the possible meaning of the bullet points.”
Child care and education: The president’s agenda includes universal school choice — which could entail federal funding to help parents pay private school fees — and increased access to preschool and child care credits, likely costing anywhere from $50 billion to $200 billion, the report says
Health care: His plan to cut prescription drug costs and reform the health care system could save anywhere from $150 billion up to $1 trillion depending on the estimate, according to the report, which notes the president has not offered “specific” proposals on this topic..
Other domestic spending: This includes increased infrastructure spending, expanding the U.S. presence in outer space with the new “Space Force” and “supporting Black-owned businesses and job training.” In total, the report estimates the proposals could cost between $750 billion to $2.95 trillion.
National Security and Immigration: Trump says he plans to increase military funding, bring troops home, ”provide world-class health care and services” to veterans and “address illegal immigration.” These policies could cost the nation $550 billion under the report’s high-cost estimate or save the same amount under a low-cost estimate.
Tax policy: Trump’s proposed tax cuts would cost between $1.4 trillion and $2.95 trillion, according to the report. His proposals include “opportunity zones” that “allow investors to defer or eliminate taxes on gains related to investments in economically distressed areas.” Trump on Monday promised the “biggest tax cut ever” if reelected.
Joe Biden
The report found 800 proposals on Biden’s website and was able to estimate a majority of them.
“To avoid double counting, we did our best to identify overlap between various proposals on his campaign website, but in some cases a lack of clarity forced us to make assumptions,” the report says.
Child care and education: The former vice president’s plans to support child care and universal pre-K and increase spending on K-12 and higher education could cost between $2.4 to $3.05 trillion. Among his plans, Biden proposes making available free pre-K for all children ages three or four
Health care and long-term care: Biden’s agenda includes expanding health insurance coverage, supporting elder and long-term care, and increasing funding for rural areas, mental health treatment and the fight against the opioid crisis. The report estimates it could cost as little as $1 trillion or as much as $2.4 trillion.
Social security and retirement: Expanding social security, supplemental security income, and tax breaks for “older Americans” under Biden’s platform would cost between $950 million to $1.3 trillion. Biden also proposes lowering the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 60.
Infrastructure, environment and other domestic spending: Biden’s agenda includes investing in “green infrastructure” and “American innovation,” universal paid leave, expanding affordable housing and “other domestic spending” for an estimated price ranging from $3 trillion to $5.5 trillion. Biden’s plans call for setting the nation on a path toward 100% clean energy and net-zero carbon emissions by the year 2050.
National Security and Immigration: His plan to end wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East could save up to $950 billion over ten years.
Tax policy: Increasing corporate taxes, “individual and pay-through” taxes and the “social security payroll tax minimum” and creating a “financial risk fee” for large banks and improving tax compliance could save anywhere from $3.65 trillion to $6.6. trillion. Biden has said that he won’t raise taxes on those making under $400,000 a year.
This story was originally published October 7, 2020 at 3:12 PM with the headline "Biden, Trump policies could add trillions to debt. Report outlines the costliest ideas."
