Social distancing may be needed until 2022 without coronavirus vaccine, researchers say

If you’re growing tired of social distancing, you may not like what some Harvard University researchers concluded in a new study.

Social distancing may need to last two more years in the United States if there is not a coronavirus vaccine, the researchers said in their study published Tuesday.

“Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available,” they wrote. “Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.”

Once the current social distancing measures are lifted, cases of coronavirus may surge again and hospitals could be overcrowded, the researchers fear.

Their study comes as the U.S. has more than 600,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 26,000 deaths as of April 15, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Many states have extended their social distancing protocols into May. Some areas of the country have formed pacts and are working to reopen their states.

But “one-time social distancing measures” could be insufficient in preventing the spread of the virus, lead author Stephen Kissler told reporters.

“What seems to be necessary in the absence of other sorts of treatments are intermittent social distancing periods,” Kissler said, according to ScienceAlert.com.

The suggestion by the researchers would be “several rounds of social distancing,” co-author Dr. Marc Lipsitch said, according to The Mercury News.

This measure likely would create smaller outbreaks that would be more manageable, researchers said.

The White House believes the outbreak in the U.S. will last until July or August, but the Harvard researchers believe that is “not consistent with what we know about the spread of infections,” Lipsitch told reporters, The Guardian reported.

The researchers also fear a coronavirus outbreak could happen as late as 2025 if there is no vaccine, but outbreaks in the autumn and winter would be less severe.

“Prolonged distancing, even if intermittent, is likely to have profoundly negative economic, social and educational consequences,” the authors wrote.

This story was originally published April 15, 2020 at 9:22 AM with the headline "Social distancing may be needed until 2022 without coronavirus vaccine, researchers say."