Are there enough hospital beds? Maps show how coronavirus cases could overwhelm Coast
Hospitals in South Mississippi and the state as a whole will be hard pressed to meet the need for beds if the new coronavirus infects 20% of the population over the next six months, calculations by the Harvard Global Health Initiative show.
Hospitals in Harrison and Hancock counties would require 1.5 times the number of currently available beds., while those in Jackson, George and Greene counties would need 2.5 times as many.
A 20% spread over 12 to 18 months might allow Harrison, Hancock and hospitals in most areas of the state to meet the need, but Jackson, George and Greene county would still not have enough beds, the calculations show.
Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, from the Harvard School of Public Health, has predicted between 20 and 60 percent of the adult population will contract COVID-19 at some point, meaning the projections represent a conservative estimate of the strain on Mississippi hospitals.
The Harvard Global Health Institute and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health further analyzed the data to show:
▪ Across Mississippi, a 20 percent infection rate would mean 451,985 infected adults, with 94,180 requiring hospitalization.
▪ If infections are spread over six months, demand for beds would be at 119%. Demand would be at 73 percent if more beds were freed up through measures such as delaying elective surgeries.
In South Mississippi, officials have urged residents to practice social distancing and work from home to slow the spread so that the state’s health care system will not be overrun. Gov. Tate Reeves has closed public schools and also urged other containment measures.
But the Coast and state have stopped short of the quarantines many other states and localities are enforcing. Gov. Tate Reeves has said he does not want to do more harm than good by forcing people from work.
“Mississippi is never going to be China,” Gov. Tate Reeves said while fielding questions about a quarantine during a Facebook Live on Monday. “ . . . We understand that people are nervous. We understand that people are scared. What I would encourage you to do is, if you feel that a statewide lock down should be occurring then you should put yourself on individual lock down.”
What South MS hospitals are doing
Based on the U.S. surgeon general’s recommendation, several Coast hospitals said they have stopped performing elective surgeries, a move that would free up beds for coronavirus cases.
Memorial Hospital at Gulfport, for example, stopped elective surgeries March 18, according to coronavirus information posted on its website. The hospital also is looking at areas that can be repurposed for patient care, its public relations department said.
Singing River Health System in Jackson County has canceled “non-essential” medical treatments and surgeries, said media relations director Sarah Duffey.
Merit Health in Biloxi also has postponed all elective surgeries until further notice, said marketing director Lori Bickel.
Singing River is also looking for alternative medical space, but Duffey said it is too early in the process to elaborate.
Garden Park Medical Center in Gulfport has the ability to add beds and also has staffing contingency plans, said Nicholas Adams, a public relations executive with affiliate HCA Healthcare.
Ochsner Medical Center in Hancock County did not respond to an email from the Sun Herald about its plans.
Only Duffey initially answered a question about ventilators, which are in short supply nationwide. She said SRHS, with hospitals in Pascagoula and Ocean Springs, has 30 ventilators. One ventilator can assist up to four patients at the same time, she said.
Memorial Hospital emailed the Sun Herald Wednesday to say the hospital has 40 ventilators.
The state Health Department is not releasing numbers on ventilators, communications director Liz Sharlot said Tuesday. She said the numbers change too quickly.
The quarantine debate
Mississippi residents are soaking up coronavirus news and worried about the pandemic’s spread in the absence of a quarantine order, judging from comments on Reeves’ Facebook Live video.
They worry about being ineligible for assistance unless they are ordered home, about the spread of COVID-19 by people who are not following suggestions to avoid crowds, and about those who will need hospitalization as the virus spreads.
“Why don’t people understand that people are not listening and they are continuing to gather at parties showers reunions job sites etc . . . ,” one commenter wrote, echoing the concerns expressed by many.
Robert Travnicek understands. The 80-year-old Coast resident, who has a master’s degree in public health and a medical degree from the University of Nebraska, has quarantined himself at home for the past three weeks.
“I’m trying not to be a statistic,” he said. Travinicek retired in 2013 after 23 years as a district health officer for the State Health Department.
Without widespread testing he says, nobody knows how broadly the pandemic has spread. Mississippi is still testing only those with a fever of 100.4 degrees or higher and a severe cough or chest pains, the State Health Department notified residents Tuesday. Some coronavirus carriers have no symptoms.
“Any assumptions you make aren’t worth the paper they are printed on because there’s no testing,” Travnicek said.
“We’re going to get through it one way or another, but the real question is trying to limit the number of deaths,” he said. “This isn’t magical. We know exactly how it spreads. We know what kind of virus it is.”
Ashley Edwards has been working at home since March 16, when he and his staff closed their office at the Gulf Coast Business Council, where he is president and CEO.
He said the decision was easy for him because he can work just as effectively from home, but he realizes not everyone can. Also, he said, health care workers and others in crucial public health and safety roles can’t stay home.
Edwards, who was speaking for himself and not the business council, said, ‘I personally think that, based on all the evidence I’ve seen, there’s an advantage to getting the virus out of circulation more quickly than letting it linger over a period of time.
“I prefer aggressive short-term measures as opposed to aggressive long-term measures simply because the faster we can get the economy back up and running, the better off we will be.”
He later added in an email: “Nationwide, it seems that hospital capacity is driving many of the shelter in place decisions.
“If this virus had a very low rate of hospitalizations, the response would likely be much different. For many viruses, when people get sick, they can simply isolate at home and the world can go on as normal. But the hospitalization rates are higher with COVID-19.
“Across the country we are seeing healthcare systems in the centers of these outbreaks getting overwhelmed. That seems to be the primary driving factor in the lock downs. If the number of patients requiring hospitalization starts to exceed the capacity of the local hospitals, you’ve got a real crisis on your hands.
Editors note: Mississippi has more hospital beds per capita than all but two states and the District of Columbia. An earlier version of this story included incorrect information. (Updated: 10 a.m. on 3/29 2020)
This story was originally published March 25, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
