The editor's pick: Exaggerator will win Preakness

 Sun Herald Editor Blake Kaplan.
TIM ISBELL/THE SUN HERALD Sun Herald Editor Blake Kaplan.

I'm expecting an upset in today's Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown.

My pick is No. 5, Exaggerator, who is 3-1 on the morning line and the likely second choice in the wagering.

I'm betting against the favorite, Nyquist, because he just ran the best race of his life and I'm speculating he'll have a hard time repeating that effort. His past races show he usually regresses after running a career-best performance.

That leaves Exaggerator to pick up the pieces.

The race is loaded with early speed who figure to set up a speed duel, which means they all run so fast so early that they tire each other out. So then the race sets up for a closer such as Exaggerator, who usually hits his best stride in a race's later stages.

I'll take Exaggerator to win, and box him in the exacta with Nyquist and Uncle Lino. That's a 2-3-5 exacta box.

-- Blake Kaplan, the Sun Herald's editor and vice president, has covered horse racing for The Orange County Register in Southern California and once worked as a handicapper at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. He has covered four Kentucky Derbys for the Sun Herald.