An early look at the National Championship odds are in favor of the Tide
Futures markets are now showing the SEC as a decisive favorite to win college football’s National Championship this coming January. The Westgate in Las Vegas was the first to make headlines, moving Alabama to a steep 4/9 favorite (risk $9 to profit only $4, or anything in that ratio). Currently Georgia, also of the SEC, is the fourth choice at 7/1.
Prices will vary across the country (and globe) at different sports books. These midweek numbers from the Westgate are representative of current respected perceptions. (Win percentage equivalents are in parenthesis.)
National Championship Odds
- Alabama 4/9 (69%)
- Clemson 9/2 (18%)
- Ohio State 9/2 (18%)
- Georgia 7/1 (13%)
- Oklahoma 25/1 (4%)
- Notre Dame 25/1 (4%)
- Penn State 30/1 (3%)
- Washington 30/1 (3%)
We’re not even to October yet! The projected Final Four is already very clear. If you’re quick with addition, you noticed that the first three teams listed add up to 105% by themselves ... and all eight listed add up to 132%. That’s because sports books build a universe larger than 100% to create a house edge.
Whatever odds you see at your local establishments, it’s a good habit to turn those into win percentage equivalents. Gives you a sense of what that shop is “charging” you for the pleasure of placing bets. All you have to do is take the number on the right …and divide it by the sum of the two numbers. For Alabama, 9 divided by 13 is .6923, or 69%. For Clemson or Ohio State, 2 divided by 11 is .1818, or 18% for each.
Just from that list, the best two SEC candidates add up to 82% in the expanded universe. Two teams from the Big 10 (OSU and PSU) add up to only 21%. The ACC has just one entry on the list, Clemson at 18%. Big 12 favorite Oklahoma, off a desperate overtime win over unheralded Army … and Pac 12 favorite Washington, already a straight up loser to Auburn (50/1 for a 2% chance if you’re interested) aren’t seen as likely to string together wins in the Final Four if they even get there.
Why so much respect for Alabama? The Crimson Tide are a true juggernaut. Many of the other threats have already shown vulnerabilities in early season action. Clemson could only eke out a win over Texas A&M. Ohio State played a statistical draw with TCU, but won thanks to a pair of non-offensive touchdowns.
Time for our weekly update involving teams of local interest. We start with a disappointing result for Mississippi State.
▪ Mississippi State (-10) lost at Kentucky 28-7. That’s a market miss of 31 points! State was much more bothered by rainy conditions, which prevented a previously potent offense from getting traction. Double-digit home underdog Kentucky won total yardage 300-201, yards-per-play 4.9 to 3.4, and rushing yards 229-56.
▪ Ole Miss (-28) only beat Kent State 38-17. Once again, a visitor from the north hung tough for a half (7-7 through two quarters) before wilting in high humidity down the stretch. A few weeks ago, that led to a Rebels cover against Southern Illinois. Not here. Would have taken a fifth quarter to reach market expectations. Ole Miss did win total yardage 651-390, and yards-per-play 8.7 to 4.6. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu again piled up stats against an overmatched defense, throwing for 428 yards through a game delayed twice by weather.
▪ Southern Miss (-13.5) beat Rice 40-22 for the only cover of the week in our featured trio. Big plays led to big stats … including a 566-262 edge in total yards and 8.7 to 4.8 in yards-per-play. That was a league win for Southern Miss, who jumps ahead in the West division of Conference USA with a 1-0 record.
This week, a special treat with Mississippi State and Ole Miss lined up for a prime-time doubleheader on ESPN.
▪ Mississippi State (-7.5) hosts Florida, with kickoff moved from midday to 5 p.m. for that national spot on ESPN. An opening line of Bulldogs -7 was bet up off the key number, which is a sign that “sharps” (professional wagerers) expect an impressive bounce back from MSU.
▪ Ole Miss (+12) visits LSU, with kickoff now set for 8 p.m. in the featured nightcap.
▪ Southern Miss (+27) gets a taste of the SEC with a trip to Auburn. That kickoff has been changed to 3 p.m. for live coverage on the SEC Network.
Back with you Saturday to review highlights from the New Orleans Saints’ high-scoring overtime win in Atlanta, and preview market expectations for Sunday’s game in New York against the Giants.