Saints no longer have a balanced offense with the running game out of steam
In a league known for surprises, there’s arguably been no bigger 2018 NFL shocker than the New Orleans Saints playing so unimpressively in the first two weeks of the new season.
This was a team supposedly inches away from being Super Bowl material after losing a playoff heartbreaker to Minnesota in January. Two weeks into September, a stunning 48-40 loss to Tampa Bay as 10-point favorites, and a “rubbing your eyes because you can’t believe it” 21-18 nail-biter win over Cleveland as 9-point point favorites.
It’s one thing to get caught napping by a “backup” quarterback who’s actually well-suited to thrive against softer defenses created by recent rules changes. But … struggling in the bounce back spot … against Cleveland?
Most alarming for Saints fans (and bettors hoping to invest in the Saints through the season), were these ugly offensive numbers…
Saints Weren’t Marching vs. Browns
- Total Yards: 275
- Yards-per-Play: 4.5
- Third Down Rate: 25%
- TDs in First 3 Quarters: 0
How can a playoff caliber team enter the fourth quarter with only three points indoors in great scoring conditions against a league doormat playing the week after a divisional overtime game? Boggles the mind.
You know that the Saints did win the fourth quarter 18-6 to even their won-lost record at 1-1. And, they can make up for a home divisional loss as a favorite to Tampa Bay with a road divisional win as an underdog in Atlanta on Sunday. New Orleans is currently +3 vs. the Falcons.
Professional wagerers pay a lot of attention to the running game. Even in a passing league like the NFL.
They’ve noticed that opposing defenses have made adjustments to deny the rushing threat of Alvin Kamara.
That began in last season’s playoffs, and has continued through the first two games of this season.
Kamara Contained on the Ground
- 1/7 vs. CAR: 10 carries for 23 yards
- 1/14 vs. MIN 11 carries for 43 yards
- 9/9 vs. TB: 9 carries for 29 yards
- 9/16 vs. CLE: 13 carries for 46 yards
Now four straight games where the much celebrated “breakout” star couldn’t reach 50 rushing yards or 4.0 yards-per-carry in important games.
VSiN isn’t saying Kamara was a flash-in-the-pan. Just that defenses have adjusted.
What this means at the team level is that New Orleans is no longer a balanced on offense. That makes it difficult to move the chains and increases the likelihood of turnovers. Through two outings as big favorites, New Orleans lost the third down conversion battle 48% to 33%, while registering -3 in turnover differential.
Those are the categories sharps will be focused on in Atlanta. The Falcons gained 442 yards on 7.4 yards-per-play last week on the same field vs. the respected defense of the Carolina Panthers … while converting 55% of third-down tries and only giving the ball away once. To stay in the game, New Orleans must return Kamara as a multi-dimensional threat.
Other notes of interest:
▪ The Saints are one of six NFL teams starting the season 0-2 against the spread: Also sticking two losses on investors: Arizona, Buffalo, Houston, the NY Giants, and Pittsburgh. Seattle and Denver are both 0-1-1, having pushed the price against each other before failing to cover their second games.
▪ Teams beating market expectations in both of their first two games are: Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City, the LA Rams, Miami, and Tampa Bay. The three Florida teams are 6-0 ATS so far! Few saw that coming given the lack of summer enthusiasm about the Dolphins, and the Jameis Winston suspension for Tampa Bay.
▪ Drew Brees has been very accurate passing so far, focusing on high-percentage throws. Only 14 of 80 Saints passes have hit the ground through two games. But, completing 28 of 35 vs. Cleveland only amounted to 213 net passing yards as the offense flailed anyway. It takes accuracy and volume (and defense!) to cover as big favorites.
▪ Brees’ passer rating of 123.0 ranks third in the league among starting quarterbacks. The rest of the top 10 (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, and Jared Goff) are a combined 14-4 against the spread.