Here’s a good primer on how to approach betting on Mississippi State and Ole Miss this year

Advance football betting markets are expecting more of the same for both Mississippi programs in 2018. Mississippi State went 8-4 in the regular season a year ago, Ole Miss 6-6. Current “Regular Season Win” Over/Under propositions are exact matches. Mississippi State eight, Mississippi six.

There are meaningful variations in vigorish, though. Vigorish is the money line charge that helps create a house edge for sports books. Instead of the traditional -110 on point spread bets, you must lay around -115 or -120 on Mississippi State to go Over 8 ... and as high as -130 on Ole Miss to go Under six.

In other words … more of the same, but some market optimism about the Bulldogs and pessimism about the Rebels. (Note that “Regular Season Win” totals exclude conference championships or bowl games. Any game canceled by bad weather is the same as a loss. You’re betting how many WINS a team will earn in the regular season.)

If you’d like to make your own win projections based on their 2018 schedules, it’s important not to fall into the trap of calling each game in advance a “win” or a “loss.” It’s a matter of percentages. Upsets happen. College football upsets happen a lot!

Don’t call underdog spots automatic losses, nor favorite spots automatic wins. Make your own number on the game, then add up the corresponding percentages. Here’s a handy chart you can use.

Pick-em: 50% win probability

-3: 60% win probability

-7: 70% win probability

-10: 80% win probability

-14: 85% win probability

-17: 90% win probability

-20 or more: a full win

All perceived coin flips should be penciled in as “half-wins.” If you think the point spread is going to be -3 in a game…give six-tenths of a win to the favorite, and four-tenths to the underdog.

A hypothetical team favored at -7 in every game wouldn’t go 12-0. Upsets happen. History shows that a perpetual seven-point favorite would go about 8.4 and 3.6 over every 12 games. Even teams favored by double digits every time out would likely lose sometimes.

We’re slightly more than a month away from the start of the 2018 season. Both Mississippi SEC schools kick off September 1. That gives you some time to map out your game-by-game projections as you anticipate the start of legalized sports betting. Let’s take a quick peak at the toughest games on the coming schedule for both programs.

Mississippi State Challenge Spots

Sept 8: at Kansas State

Sept 29: vs. Florida

Oct 6: vs. Auburn

Oct 20: at LSU

Oct 27: vs. Texas A&M

Nov 10: at Alabama

Reaching nine wins vs. this season’s slate would be quite an impressive accomplishment.

Ole Miss Challenge Spots

Sept 1: vs. Texas Tech (in Houston)

Sept 15: vs. Alabama

Sept 29: at LSU

Oct 20: vs. Auburn

Nov 10: at Texas A&M

Nov 22: vs. Mississippi State

That season opener vs. Texas Tech should provide an accurate barometer for future performance. An impressive win backed up by strong stats would signal the Rebels as a value bet in SEC underdog spots. A poor result, and trouble will be on the way.

If you weren’t following point spread results last season…

2017 Point Spread Results

Mississippi State: 8-5 (4-4 in the SEC)

Ole Miss: 4-7-1 (3-4-1 in the SEC)

Mississippi State upset Louisville as a 6-point underdog 31-27 in the TaxSlayer Bowl. Note that performance vs. expectations in non-conference play was the driving force behind those “against the spread” differences. A 4-1 ATS record for the Bulldogs outside the SEC, just 1-3 ATS for the Rebels.

Championship odds

To win SEC championship — Line

Alabama — -180

Georgia — +250

Auburn — 7/1

Mississippi State — 15/1

Florida — 18/1

LSU — 20/1

Missouri — 25/1

South Carolina — 30/1

Texas A&M — 30/1

Ole Miss — 50/1

Arkansas — 300/1

Kentucky — 300/1

Tennessee — 300/1

Vanderbilt — 500/1

To win CFP championship — Line

Alabama — +250

Clemson — 4/1

Ohio State — 6/1

Georgia — 8/1

Washington — 10/1

Michigan — 15/1

Oklahoma — 15/1

Penn State — 15/1

Wisconsin — 20/1

Auburn — 25/1

LSU — 30/1

Mississippi St. — 100/1

Ole Miss — 500/1

This story was originally published July 25, 2018 at 12:22 PM.