Chism poll finds U.S. Senate race a dead heat

Posted on May 31, 2014 

Senate Mississippi Cochran

ROGELIO V. SOLIS/ASSOCIATED PRESSVisitors enter and leave the home of tea party official Mark Mayfield, Friday, June 27, 2014, in Ridgeland. Mayfield, charged with conspiring to take photos of U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran's wife inside a nursing home, apparently committed suicide at his home Friday, according to police. Mayfield and three other men were arrested last month and face various charges of conspiring to photograph Rose Cochran in the nursing home where she has lived since 2001 with dementia.

ROGELIO V. SOLIS — AP

  A poll released Friday by Chism Strategies, a Mississippi firm that says it has no ties to either the Sen. Thad Cochran or state Sen. Chris McDaniel campaigns, comes to this conclusion:

 This race is too close to project a winner. (That's because although McDaniel leads by 46.4 percent to 44.3 percent, the lead is within the margin of error)

 Brad Chism continues with his analysis of the poll (You can find much more here):

  •  Because of the significant differentials in candidate support by age group, the turnout mix will impact the final tallies--the younger the mix, the better for McDaniel.
  • Because Mississippi doesn’t conduct closed primaries and the Democratic primary is not heavily contested, projecting the ideological mix of the turnout is difficult -- the more Democrats who cross over, the better for Cochran.
  • Of the remaining undecided voters, 81 percent say that the “scandals” of both camps (nursing home photography and Cochran's aide) are equally bad.

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